Oklahoma is a double-digit underdog for just the second time since 2000, but they enjoy a staggering 15-1 straight up (SU) mark against the host Baylor Bears.
It’s a classic Big 12 clash in which the Sooners have struggled in conference play (2-7 against the spread) while the Bears have dominated (13-3 ATS).
Point spread: Baylor opened as 14-point favorites. The total was 72.5 as of Wednesday. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 44-31 Baylor
Why Oklahoma can cover the spread
If the Sooners want to win this game, it could come down to the play of their secondary, shutting down the high-flying Baylor passing game. Senior DB Aaron Colvin could take this game over, going sideline to sideline to cover Baylor's big playmakers. His presence around the line of scrimmage could help the Sooners slow down the Baylor attack.
And history (a 15-1 SU run) is on their side.
Why Baylor can cover the spread
Speedy Tevin Reese, who is averaging 118 yards per game and 25 yards per catch, fronts one of the best receiving duos in the country. So expect the Sooners secondary to get a heavy dose of Baylor's relentless passing game. It'll be key for Reese and his running mate at wideout, Antwan Goodley, to get behind Oklahoma's defense, which allows 179.5 yards passing per game.
The Bears have dominated conference foes against the spread to the tune of a 13-3 ATS streak.
Baylor is the better team, and with the No. 1 offense in the land and the capability of covering this spread inside the first half of the first quarter, you can't help but lay the points. This one is at home and on national TV, and that'll make the difference, as the Bears will be out to prove something.
Sooners have won 15 of 16 meetings straight-up with Baylor.
Sooners have been double-digit dog just once in 15 seasons.
Sooners are 2-7 ATS past nine within the Big 12.
Baylor is 13-3 ATS past 16 games within the Big 12.