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Oregon vs. Stanford Football: Betting Odds Analysis and Pick Prediction

EUGENE, OR - NOVEMBER 17: Quarterback Marcus Mariota #8 of the Oregon Ducks eludes the rush of defensive tackle Terrence Stephens #99 of the Stanford Cardinal during the first quarter of the game at Autzen Stadium on November 17, 2012 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
Steve Dykes/Getty Images
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistNovember 6, 2013

All Oregon does is win and cover spreads, and oddsmakers have given the Ducks a solid Pac-12 challenge on Thursday at Stanford.

The Cardinal are double-digit home underdogs against a team riding a perfect streak in 11 recent games as a road favorite.


Point spread:
Oregon opened as 9.5-point favorites but were sitting at -10.5 midweek at some sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark; the total was 61.5. (Line updates and matchup report)


Odds Shark computer prediction: 45-27 Oregon


Why Oregon can cover the spread

Oregon has won 18 straight non-neutral site away games, and the Ducks have far too much at stake to lose this game. With the Ducks knowing that they need a win here to climb back into the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings, they'll be out to execute to perfection with the second-best scoring offense (55.6), rushing offense (331.5) and total offense (632.1) in the nation.

They are 11-0 ATS in 11 games as a road favorite and 12-2 ATS in conference play, according to Odds Shark.


Why Stanford can cover the spread

Though Stanford's Kevin Hogan has been erratic over the past month, in part because of breakdowns in protection and the lack of a consistent receiving corps, the redshirt sophomore plays his best football when stakes are high, as he's 7-0 as a starter against ranked teams.

Stanford rides a 6-0 ATS streak as a home underdog.


Smart Pick

Revenge for the Ducks makes this the smart play. The Cardinal dealt the Ducks their only loss last season, 17-14 in overtime at Autzen nearly one year ago—Nov. 17, 2012. Now, with so much on the line for the Ducks, they're not just going to want to win, they'll be out to dismantle Stanford.


Trends
:

Stanford is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Oregon.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games.

OVER is 7-1 the past eight meetings.

Stanford 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS the past six as home underdog.

Oregon 11-0 ATS the past 11 games as road favorite.

Oregon is 10-2 ATS the past 12 conference games.


Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

 

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