Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 6, 2013

ORCHARD PARK, NY - AUGUST 25: Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers
throws against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium on August 25, 2012 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images)
Rick Stewart/Getty Images

The Pittsburgh Steelers have won and covered eight of their last nine against Buffalo, while the Bills have lost 15 of their last 18 road games straight-up (SU). After consecutive losses, are the Steelers done for the year, or is this an easy spread to cover and a fresh start for the season's second half?


Point spread: The Steelers opened as five-point favorites, but it was bet down to -3 by midweek; the total was 41 (line updates and matchup report).


OddsShark.com computer prediction: 16.6-15.4 Bills.


Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo has to still be stunned in how they let last Sunday's game against Kansas City slip away. Ahead 10-3 after the first half, they opened the second half by driving to the Chiefs' 1-yard line, when Sean Smith returned an interception 100 yards for a score.

That's a huge swing. Buffalo will want to avenge last week's loss and is capable of doing so.


Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Though the Steelers lost to New England last week, they looked spirited in rallying from a 24-10 halftime deficit to tie the game over the first eight minutes of the third quarter. Of course, the Patriots outscored them 31-7 the rest of the way, but the Bills aren't the Pats.

Pittsburgh is the better team, and they have dominated the Bills over the years, winning eight of nine meetings.


Smart Pick

The loss to New England dropped the Steelers to 2-6 for the first time since 2006, the season after they beat the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Coach Mike Tomlin said he will evaluate everything in an effort to turn things around, and it starts this week in the first game of the second half of Pittsburgh's lost season.



Buffalo is 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games on the road.

The Bills are 1-8 SU and ATS in the past nine vs. the Steelers.

The Steelers are 5-0 SU and ATS at home vs. the Bills since 1993.

The Bills are 3-15 SU in the past 18 road games.

The UNDER is 12-2 in the past 14 Pittsburgh home games.


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