Fantasy Football Week 10: Updated Trade Value for Top 100 Players

Timothy RappFeatured ColumnistNovember 7, 2013

Nov 3, 2013; Foxborough, MA, USA;  New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) congratulates running back Stevan Ridley (22) after a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

With the season past its halfway point and many trade deadlines in fantasy leagues approaching in the next month, the chance to strike on a season-altering deal is now. 

If there is a player you think can produce bigger second-half numbers, buy low now. If you are worried about one of your superstars, sell high now. For the most part, after nine weeks in the season, you should know what you have in your lineup, but there is always the chance to improve.

With my weekly trade-value chart, you'll be able to do so via a trade. With a month or so to go before most leagues enter their playoffs, the last thing you can afford down the stretch run is to get ripped off. 

 

Notes: The top 100 players were determined by using the current ESPN standard-scoring league rankings, calculating each player's "value over replacement player" (VORP for short) and by projecting a player's value for the rest of the season.

VORP was calculated by determining how many additional (or fewer) points per week a player scores compared to the best bench player at his position in 10-team leagues (No. 11 quarterback and tight end; No. 26 running back and wide receiver, taking the flex into account). Games missed due to injury or suspension count against a player's VORP.

Any player not listed has a trade value of one. Remember, this is only a guide—your team needs and areas of strength should always determine any potential trades.

 

Quarterbacks

Week 10 Trade Value for Quarterbacks
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
11Peyton ManningDenver Broncos10.930
112Drew BreesNew Orleans Saints6.827
183Matt StaffordDetroit Lions4.324
194Cam NewtonCarolina Panthers2.824
385Philip RiversNew Orleans Saints3.017
396Andrew LuckIndianapolis Colts2.817
407Tony RomoDallas Cowboys2.417
459Tom BradyNew England Patriots-2.115
6910Russell WilsonSeattle Seahawks0.29
7011Colin KaepernickSan Francisco 49ers-0.79
7112Robert Griffin IIIWashington-1.69
8013Matt RyanAtlanta Falcons0.65
8114Andy DaltonCincinnati Bengals05
877Aaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers2.33
9515Alex SmithKansas City Chiefs-1.92

 

Quarterback Notes

There is movement at the quarterback position this week, folks. With news that Aaron Rodgers could be out four to six weeks, his value is drastically diminished. He remains on this chart because folks might want to buy low on him and stash him away for the playoffs if they are confident they'll reach that stage.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady shoots way up the rankings, though honestly, I have no idea how to value him. I believe he'll be the Brady of old in the second half with his weapons healthy once again, which makes me think I value him too low, but he's been so mediocre from a fantasy standpoint to this point that I think I have him valued too high.

Gah. If you believe his performance against the Steelers was a sign of things to come, go out and get him now. If you think it was an outlier, stay away. 

Nick Foles is one more week away from making this list. If he puts up another solid performance—and I think he will—there's no way the Philadelphia Eagles will go back to Michael Vick. But if he's only mediocre, it's possible Vick could return as the starter. It's complicated, so for the time being, Foles doesn't hold much value.

Okay, enough of the confusion—let's do a trade theoretical.

Let's say you have Andy Dalton and Cam Newton at quarterback, but you have lost a lot of players at your other positions to injuries and desperately need help. You know getting rid of Newton will bring you back more value in a trade, and you also know he faces three teams in the next three weeks that are ninth or better in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.

You are in the heat of a playoff push and are worried that Newton's production might wane slightly. Plus, you know you can add Foles or Case Keenum on waivers and play matchups. What types of deals should you expect to get in exchange for Newton?

There are obviously other types of deals you could pursue, but you could easily turn Newton into two nice players for your team. 

 

Running Backs

Week 10 Trade Value for Running Back
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
21Matt ForteChicago Bears9.629
32Jamaal CharlesKansas City Chiefs9.329
43Adrian PetersonMinnesota Vikings8.629
64Knowshon MorenoDenver Broncos8.027
75Marshawn LynchSeattle Seahawks6.727
86LeSean McCoyPhiladelphia Eagles6.727
127Frank GoreSan Francisco 49ers6.326
138Reggie BushDetroit Lions5.826
149Alfred MorrisWashington4.926
1510Eddie LacyGreen Bay Packers3.826
2511Stevan RidleyNew England Patriots2.222
2612Chris JohnsonTennessee Titans4.422
2713Arian FosterHouston Texans3.122
2914Fred JacksonBuffalo Bills4.420
3015Zac StacySt. Louis Rams0.920
3116DeMarco MurrayDallas Cowboys1.320
4117C.J. SpillerBuffalo Bills-1.016
4218Ray RiceBaltimore Ravens-1.216
4319Giovani BernardCincinnati Bengals2.616
5520Danny WoodheadSan Diego Chargers1.812
5621Le'Veon BellPittsburgh Steelers012
5722Andre EllingtonArizona Cardinals1.112
5823DeAngelo WilliamsCarolina Panthers1.012
5924Steven JacksonAtlanta Falcons-4.112
6325Darren McFaddenOakland Raiders0.910
6426Ryan MathewsSan Diego Chargers0.610
6527Chris IvoryNew York Jets-2.710
6628Pierre ThomasNew Orleans Saints0.110
6729Trent RichardsonIndianapolis Colts-0.610
8930Mike TolbertCarolina Panthers0.43
9031Maurice Jones-DrewJacksonville Jaguars-0.13
9132Lamar MillerMiami Dolphins-0.13
9233Darren SprolesNew Orleans Saints-0.53
9334BenJarvus Green-EllisCincinnati Bengals-1.03

 

Running Back Notes

A lot of people will think that the loss of Rodgers will increase Eddie Lacy's fantasy value, as his usage will go up. Other people will feel his production will actually decrease since teams are more likely to stack the box, not fearing Seneca Wallace's ability to beat them through the air.

Let's say you are in the latter camp and you also owned Rodgers, so you now need to upgrade at quarterback. Plus, you are weak at wide receiver and tight end but have good running back depth.

What types of players could you get in exchange for Lacy?

Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy keep creeping up the rankings, because each has produced like RB1 options the past several weeks. And yes, I think C.J. Spiller should return to being nothing worse than an RB2 from here on out too.

As for Ray Rice, well, I'm torn. He's better than this, but he hasn't looked good at all, and the offensive scheme seems hell-bent on ignoring him if the running game isn't productive early. It's odd how the Ravens seem to constantly underutilize their best offensive player, but it's nothing new.

Meanwhile, Arian Foster, given his injury concerns, continues to slide down the rankings, not unlike the Houston Texans in general. 

 

Wide Receivers

Week 10 Trade Value for Wide Receivers
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
91Calvin JohnsonDetroit Lions6.827
152Dez BryantDallas Cowboys4.725
163A.J. GreenCincinnati Bengals4.625
174Brandon MarshallChicago Bears4.425
205Wes WelkerDenver Broncos4.923
216Demaryius ThomasDenver Broncos4.623
227DeSean JacksonPhiladelphia Eagles4.923
238Andre JohnsonHouston Texans3.823
249Josh GordonCleveland Browns1.023
3510Jordy NelsonGreen Bay Packers5.918
3611Vincent JacksonTampa Bay Buccaneers2.418
3712Victor CruzNew York Giants2.918
4413T.Y. HiltonIndianapolis Colts2.115
4614Antonio BrownPittsburgh Steelers2.814
4715Eric DeckerDenver Broncos2.014
4816Pierre GarconWashington1.614
4917Torrey SmithBaltimore Ravens1.314
5018Keenan AllenSan Diego Chargers0.513
5119Alshon JefferyChicago Bears2.813
5220Denarius MooreOakland Raiders1.113
5321Larry FitzgeraldArizona Cardinals0.913
5422Danny AmendolaNew England Patriots-4.213
7223James JonesGreen Bay Packers-2.57
7324Terrance WilliamsDallas Cowboys-0.37
7425Cecil ShortsJacksonville Jaguars-0.47
7526Harry DouglasAtlanta Falcons-0.97
8327Steve SmithCarolina Panthers-1.14
8428Golden TateSeattle Seahawks-1.14
8529Steve JohnsonBuffalo Bills-1.34
8630Mike WallaceMiami Dolphins-1.54
9831Roddy WhiteAtlanta Falcons-6.72
9932Riley CooperPhiladelphia Eagles02
10033Aaron DobsonNew England Patriots-0.62

 

Wide Receiver Notes

GREEN BAY, WI - NOVEMBER 04: Jordy Nelson #87 of the Green Bay Packers makes the catch and turns up field for some more yards during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field on November 04, 2013 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Mike
Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

Yes, I think the value of Jordy Nelson and James Jones takes a major hit with Wallace under center. It's hard to go from Rodgers to Wallace and completely retain your fantasy value. Let's keep it real: It's like going from Johnnie Walker Blue to a box of wine. 

Beyond that, the biggest changes this week are T.Y. Hilton's value seeing a major boost after his three-touchdown performance against the Houston Texans and Andre Johnson's value skyrocketing with Case Keenum under center.

One player who is interesting is Vincent Jackson. He'll post absolutely epic numbers some weeks, only to disappear in others. And with Mike Williams done for the year and Doug Martin still sidelined, teams can pay extra attention to Jackson on the outside.

Let's say you don't like riding Jackson's roller coaster and you have suitable wide receiver depth but need to upgrade at other positions. What type of players could you get for him in a deal?

  • Colin Kaepernick and Darren McFadden
  • Andre Ellington and Jordan Reed
  • Danny Woodhead and Charles Clay
  • Tony Romo
  • C.J. Spiller and Aaron Dobson 
  • Ray Rice and Mike Tolbert

I won't sugarcoat it for you, folks—after the top 26 receivers, things get pretty ugly at the position. Even players like Mike Wallace and Steve Smith have value primarily for what they've proven capable of in the past, not for what they've done this season. If you don't have two of the top 26 players at your receiver, find a way to get one. 

 

Tight Ends

Week 10 Trade Value for Tight Ends
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
51Jimmy GrahamNew Orleans Saints9.928
282Rob GronkowskiNew England Patriots-2.821
323Vernon DavisSan Francisco 49ers4.919
334Julius ThomasDenver Broncos4.819
345Jordan CameronCleveland Browns3.719
606Tony GonzalezAtlanta Falcons2.011
617Jason WittenDallas Cowboys1.411
628Antonio GatesSan Diego Chargers1.111
769Martellus BennettChicago Bears0.96
7710Charles ClayMiami Dolphins0.86
7811Greg OlsenCarolina Panthers0.56
7912Jordan ReedWashington06
9613Coby FleenerIndianapolis Colts-1.12
9714Timothy WrightTampa Bay Buccaneers-2.22

 

Tight End Notes

Nov 3, 2013; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets free safety Antonio Allen breaks up a pass intended for New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham (80) during the game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY

What's so crazy about Jimmy Graham's consistent performance this year is that, at this point, he isn't even healthy. And yet he's still averaging more fantasy points per week (16.4) than every non-quarterback except Matt Forte (16.6).

He's insanely valuable, folks, and at this point, if you aren't getting back Peyton Manning or one of the top three quarterbacks, you really should reconsider trading him at all. 

Of course, that Rob Gronkowski guy is pretty good too. Expect really big things from him after the bye. 

It's rare you get such a definitive and consistent top-12 at any positions, but that's what we've seen at tight end this year (with the exception of Gronk's long injury, that is). If you have one of the top five, you are getting amazing value at the position. Gonzalez, Witten and Antonio Gates are solid values as well. 

At this point, if you have one of those eight tight ends, you really shouldn't be dealing him unless you're able to nab a player like Jordan Reed off of waivers and you need emergency help at other positions.

Or maybe you waited and expertly grabbed Gates and Jordan Cameron. Let's say you are worried that Cameron has reached double-digit points just once in the past five weeks and you need depth elsewhere. What could you get for him?

Pretty solid packages for a tight end that you probably took a flier on in your draft in the first place. 

 

Defense/Special Teams

Week 10 Trade Value for Defense/Special Teams
RankPos. RankTeamVORPTrade Value
721Kansas City Chiefs9.08
832Seattle Seahawks3.24
883Carolina Panthers4.43
944San Francisco 49ers2.12

 

Defense/Special Team Notes

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - OCTOBER 13:  Larry Fitzgerald #11 of the Arizona Cardinals fumbles the ball after he was hit by Patrick Willis #52 of the San Francisco 49ers during the third quarter at Candlestick Park on October 13, 2013 in San Francisco, California
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

If we were doing trade values by VORP alone, the Kansas City Chiefs would be the fifth-most valuable commodity in all of fantasy football. It's hard to imagine the defense averaging 15.9 points per week the rest of the way—and since streaming defenses is such a viable strategy, it's hard to value the Chiefs defense too highly—but it has definite trade value. 

The San Francisco 49ers are added to the list this week, as they've scored eight or more points six of the past seven weeks. They are one of four defenses that you should be starting pretty much every week. 

 

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy lineup questions and commiserate with all of you Aaron Rodgers owners. Fantasy can be so cruel. 

Follow TRappaRT on Twitter