Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers: Betting Odds Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistNovember 5, 2013

DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 18:  Defensive end Derek Wolfe #95 of the Denver Broncos rushes against the block of tackle Michael Harris #79 of the San Diego Chargers in pursuit of quarterback Philip Rivers #17 of the San Diego Chargers at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on November 18, 2012 in Denver, Colorado. The Broncos defeated the Chargers 30-23.  (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

The Denver Broncos have been pretty good in recent seasons on the road in the AFC West, going 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 divisional road games.

The San Diego Chargers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six AFC West divisional home games. So the trends lean toward the Broncos for this divisional rivalry Sunday in San Diego.


Point spread: Broncos opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 57 (line updates and matchup report). computer says: 41.2-28.9 Broncos


Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Dangerous Denver leads the league in total offense and scoring and hasn't yet put up less than 33 points in a game this season. Quarterback Peyton Manning is working on yet another MVP award, with 29 touchdown passes through his first eight games. Also, the Broncos swept the season series from San Diego last year, scoring 65 points in the process.

They are 10-2 ATS in 12 seasons following a bye week.


Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Bolts rank sixth in offense with Philip Rivers looking like his old self, compiling a 17-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. San Diego is only 4-4 straight up but 5-2-1 ATS, as the Chargers have lost three games they could have won. They also rank fourth in the league in time of possession, holding the ball for over 32 minutes per game.

San Diego has also been very tough as a home dog (9-2 ATS past 11 times in this role).

Smart Pick's computer is predicting Denver to win and cover in a high-scoring affair that plays OVER the total. The Broncos had last week off, but sometimes those bye weeks can interfere with a team's momentum and timing. And San Diego is 3-0 ATS at home this season.

Take the Chargers as home dogs.


- Broncos are 10-2 ATS past 12 seasons following bye week.

- Chargers 9-2 ATS past 11 games as home underdogs.

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