Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistNovember 5, 2013

ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 23:  Running back Mark Ingram #28 of the New Orleans Saints carries the ball against cornerback Morris Claiborne #24 of the Dallas Cowboys at Cowboys Stadium on December 23, 2012 in Arlington, Texas. The New Orleans Saints beat the Dallas Cowboys 34-31 in overtime. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Tom Pennington/Getty Images

The Dallas Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread the last eight times they've been listed as road dogs on the NFL point spread. But the New Orleans Saints are 19-4 ATS their last 23 games as favorites at home.

Something's gonna give when the Pokes and Saints meet at the Superdome Sunday night.

Point spread
: Saints opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 52.5. (Line updates and Matchup report)

OddsShark.com computer says
: 30.5-27.4 Saints

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas just got RB DeMarco Murray back, and while he only accounted for 50 yards from scrimmage in Sunday's come-from-behind victory over Minnesota, he should see his touches increased this week. And a little more balance on offense would be nice for the Cowboys, especially going against a Saints defense that just gave up 198 yards on the ground to the Jets.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans, of course, is very tough to stop on their home field, going 4-0 both straight up and ATS in the Superdome this year, averaging almost 32 points per game. Overall, the Saints rank seventh in offense, ninth in defense and third in time-of-possession, and they get to go against a Dallas defense that ranks 31st both overall and vs. the pass.

They are also 7-2 ATS in nine recent matches against the Cowboys.

Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is calling for New Orleans to win in a shootout, but for Dallas to cover the spread. The Saints just lost to the Jets, which makes them good candidates for a “bounce-back” play. Plus, they just beat the Cowboys last December 34-31 in OT, racking up over 550 yards of offense. Give the points and go with New Orleans.


The OVER is 7-2 in Dallas' past nine seasons before a bye week.

Saints are 7-2 ATS in their past nine games vs. the Cowboys.

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