5 Best BCS Scenarios for the Pac-12

Robby BakerContributor IIINovember 4, 2013

5 Best BCS Scenarios for the Pac-12

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    The Oregon Ducks are in the BCS title hunt.
    The Oregon Ducks are in the BCS title hunt.Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

    The Oregon Ducks, Stanford Cardinal, Arizona State Sun Devils and UCLA Bruins all have a chance to play in a BCS bowl game depending on how the last month of the season unfolds.

    Oregon is in the national title hunt and the Cardinal, Sun Devils and Bruins all have outside shots at at-large bids or automatic qualification based on how the Pac-12 Championship goes.

    The Ducks and Cardinal have the best chance at the BCS, either with Oregon in the title game and Stanford in the Rose Bowl or Oregon in the Rose Bowl and Stanford at-large.

    ASU and UCLA's best shot will come with winning the Pac-12 Championship.

    If all heck breaks loose and everything falls apart, the University of Arizona has a chance to make it if they win the South and the championship game. The Wildcats are currently second in the South, but if this happened, the world would also probably be ending.

    Here is a look at the Pac-12's best BCS bowl scenarios. 

Oregon, Stanford and Arizona State

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    Taylor Kelly hopes to lead ASU to the BCS.
    Taylor Kelly hopes to lead ASU to the BCS.William Mancebo/Getty Images

    This scenario becomes a reality if Stanford beats Oregon and ASU beats Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship.

    The Sun Devils would take the automatic Rose Bowl bid and likely play Ohio State.

    A one-loss Oregon and two-loss Stanford both have chances at at-large bids. The Ducks would likely take an at-large bid to either the Orange Bowl or Fiesta Bowl with the Cardinal possibly taking whatever is left.

    For this to happen, though, another top team will have to fall.

    The argument can be made that a two-loss Stanford team is more qualified than an undefeated Northern Illinois for a BCS spot after what happened to the Huskies last year in the Orange Bowl.

Oregon, Stanford and UCLA

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    There is chance that the Bruins and Ducks play again for a shot at the Roses.
    There is chance that the Bruins and Ducks play again for a shot at the Roses.Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

    This scenario would play out largely like the previous one.

    The Cardinal would have to upset the Ducks and UCLA would have to beat Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship.

    The best-case scenario here is that this plays out the same as the last one, just with UCLA winning the Pac-12 South and ultimately the Pac-12.

    The Bruins' only chance at a BCS game comes from them winning the Pac-12.

Oregon and Arizona State or UCLA

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    Oregon would make the BCS as a one-loss at-large bid.
    Oregon would make the BCS as a one-loss at-large bid.Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

    This scenario plays out with Arizona State beating the Oregon Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship and Oregon gaining an at-large bid.

    The Ducks would have to beat the Cardinal in their regular season matchup to capture the Pac-12 North crown. The Cardinal would have an outside shot as a two-loss team, but it will be an uphill battle.

    ASU would play in the Rose Bowl as champions of the Pac-12, and Oregon would likely end up as an at-large selection to the Fiesta Bowl.

    This could play out the same way if UCLA is inserted for Arizona State.

Oregon and Stanford

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    The Stanford Cardinal would have to beat Oregon twice in this scenario.
    The Stanford Cardinal would have to beat Oregon twice in this scenario.Steve Dykes/Getty Images

    In this scenario, the Pac-12 South winner would fall short in the championship game and be left out of the BCS picture.

    The Cardinal would have to beat the Ducks in the regular season, then win the Pac-12 Championship for this to come true. 

    A two-loss Oregon and Pac-12 champion Stanford could both get BCS spots.

    Again, Oregon would probably get an at-large bid to the Fiesta or Orange Bowl, and Stanford would be playing in the 100th Rose Bowl.

    This scenario also becomes a reality if Oregon runs the table and goes to the BCS National Championship game, leaving Stanford as the likely replacement for Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

Just Oregon

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    Oregon will be getting a BCS bid this year, no matter what scenario.
    Oregon will be getting a BCS bid this year, no matter what scenario.Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

    This would happen if Oregon beats Stanford but loses a game down the stretch.

    The Ducks would then likely still win the Pac-12 Championship and go to the Rose Bowl to take on the Big Ten champion.

    This is the most unlikely scenario and the worst-case for the Pac-12 but is still something that could happen. 

    No matter what, Oregon will be playing in a BCS game this year.

    The real question is, who will be joining them?

     

    Robby Baker is a B/R Featured Columnist. You can find his B/R archive and follow him @Robby__Baker.