Odds Each Big-Name MLB Free Agent Accepts Qualifying Offer

Josh SchochAnalyst IIINovember 4, 2013

Odds Each Big-Name MLB Free Agent Accepts Qualifying Offer

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    MLB's deadline to extend qualifying offers to Type A or Type B free agents has come and gone, and some of the brightest stars in the game are contemplating whether they should accept their offers or test the free-agent waters.

    The 13 players who received qualifying offers of one-year, $14.1 million have one week to decide whether or not they should accept them, but for some, it simply doesn't make sense.

    Let's take an early look at who could accept their qualifying offer this offseason.

Notable Players Not to Receive a Qualifying Offer

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    Josh Johnson, Toronto Blue Jays

    Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves

    Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston Red Sox

    Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers

    Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics

    Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics

    Omar Infante, Detroit Tigers

    Jhonny Peralta, Detroit Tigers

    Joaquin Benoit, Detroit Tigers

    A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates

    A.J. Pierzynski, Texas Rangers

    Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers

    Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies

    Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

The Zero Percent Crew

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    There's no way these guys take such a measly contract. Guys like Robinson Cano are laughing at their qualifying offers.

    There is a zero percent chance these guys accept these early offers:

    • Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
    • Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
    • Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
    • Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals
    • Shin-Soo Choo, Cincinnati Reds
    • Ervin Santana, Kansas City Royals

Curtis Granderson

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    2013 Team: New York Yankees

    2013 Salary: $15 million

    2013 Stats: 61 GP, .229/.317/.407, 7 HR, 15 RBI

     

    Curtis Granderson is coming off an injury-riddled season in which he failed to impress anyone.

    While the Grandy Man wasn't bad when he came back, he looked nothing like the man who hit over 40 home runs in each of the previous two seasons.

    Granderson's value as a free agent is tough to determine right now, as he could come back and be a star, or he could continue to struggle after his disastrous 2013 campaign.

    According to Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News, Granderson's agent said that the slugger might accept a qualifying offer, and the Yankees obliged.

    It might make more sense for Granderson to accept the offer, as it would allow him to come back to the Bronx, where he hit 26 of his 43 home runs in 2012. Another big season could lead to him signing a massive contract next offseason, and it would certainly be smart if he took the guaranteed money this year.

    Percent Chance He Accepts Qualifying Offer: 80 Percent

Ubaldo Jimenez

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    2013 Team: Cleveland Indians

    2013 Salary: $5.75 million

    2013 Stats: 32 GS, 13-9, 3.30 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

     

    Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off his best season since his epic 2010 campaign, leading the Cleveland Indians to the postseason.

    Jimenez looked like an ace again this season, dominating AL hitters and getting back to his winning ways.

    After such an impressive year, Jimenez is going to want to cash in on his success. While there is a chance that he thinks he won't make more than $14.1 million with another team in free agency, it's more likely that he declines the qualifying offer and uses his dominant year as a negotiating tactic.

    The 29-year-old Jimenez should be looking for a contract of five or six years if he can get it, as a one-year deal doesn't provide the financial stability he should be trying to get.

    Percent Chance He Accepts Qualifying Offer: 20 Percent

Mike Napoli

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    2013 Team: Boston Red Sox

    2013 Salary: $13 million

    2013 Stats: 132 GP, .259/.360/.482, 23 HR, 92 RBI

     

    Mike Napoli couldn't have come much closer to his career averages this year. His .259/.360/.482 is almost identical to his .259/.357/.502 averages over his eight-year career.

    At 32 years old, Napoli is still performing well. However, he knows he doesn't have a lot of time left in the league.

    At this point in his career, Napoli should be looking for a contract of four years or so. While $14.1 million is nice, a down year could lead to him receiving a much weaker offer next offseason.

    Napoli also exploded in the month of September, batting .333 with six home runs and 16 RBI. He also helped the Red Sox win the World Series, and he could negotiate for a longer contract than one year if he declines the offer.

    Percent Chance He Accepts Qualifying Offer: 30 Percent

Kendrys Morales

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    2013 Team: Seattle Mariners

    2013 Salary: $5.25 million

    2013 Stats: 156 GP, .277/.336/.449, 23 HR, 80 RBI

     

    Kendrys Morales put together another solid season for the Seattle Mariners in 2013, and it's high time he got out of Seattle.

    Morales has been stuck on one of the worst teams in baseball this year, and he'll likely want to leave to find a new home where he could be playing in October.

    With such solid numbers, Morales should be able to find more money on the free-agency market without a problem. However, there's still the chance that he won't.

    Morales might be content with $14.1 million, even if it means playing with the Mariners again. It comes down to whether or not he thinks he can get more money and financial stability somewhere else, but if he thinks he won't find it, he'll accept the qualifying offer.

    Percent Chance He Accepts Qualifying Offer: 25 Percent

Stephen Drew

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    2013 Team: Boston Red Sox

    2013 Salary: $9.5 million

    2013 Stats: 124 GP, .253/.333/.443, 13 HR, 67 RBI

     

    Stephen Drew dealt with injuries but still put together a solid season for the Red Sox, considering that he is already 30 years old and his production has been slipping over the past few years.

    He's no longer the same 25-year-old who hit .291 with 21 home runs in 2008, and teams are going to take that into account this offseason.

    Drew has been plagued by injuries since 2011, playing in just 289 games over the past three seasons, or 96.3 games per year.

    If Drew thinks that he can stay healthy next year and make more money next offseason, it makes sense for him to accept the offer. However, if he's not confident that he will ever return to prime form, he should decline the offer and look for a multi-year deal.

    Percent Chance He Accepts Qualifying Offer: 65 Percent

Nelson Cruz

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    2013 Team: Texas Rangers

    2013 Salary: $10.5 million

    2013 Stats: 109 GP, .266/.327/.506, 27 HR, 76 RBI

     

    Nelson Cruz was on pace for a career year before he was forced to serve a 50-game suspension due to his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal.

    Cruz still finished with good numbers, and if he had played out the season, he would've had a fantastic 2013 campaign.

    However, the suspension hit Cruz hard. He was on his way to a major payday, but now teams will be wary of signing him because of the time he missed and the chance that he could be suspended again.

    The fact still remains that Cruz had a breakout year, and it's unlikely that he will be able to replicate it in 2014.

    Cruz's decision essentially comes down to whether or not he thinks he'll be able to repeat that success next season so he can sign a bigger contract next offseason. If he thinks that his value is high right now and won't go up, it makes sense to decline the offer.

    Percent Chance He Accepts Qualifying Offer: 10 Percent

Hiroki Kuroda

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    2013 Team: New York Yankees

    2013 Salary: $15 million

    2013 Stats: 32 GS, 11-13, 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

     

    Hiroki Kuroda is coming off another electrifying year in the Bronx, but at 38 years old, it's unclear whether he'll be pitching in MLB at all next year.

    Rumor has it, per Newsday's David Lennon, that Kuroda was deciding between returning to the Yankees and returning to Japan last year, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him decide between the same two options again this offseason.

    It's not easy to pitch in MLB at Kuroda's age, and he'll be 39 before the 2013 season starts. His body is bound to start wearing down soon, even if he's never posted an ERA above 3.76 in his MLB career.

    Kuroda could come back and accept the Yankees' qualifying offer or leave and return to Japan, but there is no sign of which way he is leaning right now.

    Percent Chance He Accepts Qualifying Offer: 50 Percent