Premier League Betting Tips Week 11: Top Matches and Goalscorers to Wager

Timothy RappFeatured ColumnistNovember 5, 2013

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 02:  David Silva of Manchester City celebrates scoring the second goal with his team-mate Sergio Aguero (L) during the Barclays Premier League match between Manchester City and Norwich City at Etihad Stadium on November 2, 2013 in Manchester, England.  (Photo by Ben Hoskins/Getty Images)
Ben Hoskins/Getty Images

Last week, we obviously all knew that Newcastle was going to beat Chelsea 2-0. Oh wait, no we didn't—while Newcastle have been competitive against good competition this year, that result came out of left field. 

There were matches last week that were probably safe to avoid. Arsenal vs. Liverpool and Everton hosting Tottenham come to mind. Other matches were safer bets, like the two Manchester giants coming away with wins. 

So what are the wise bets this week? And which players should you be expecting to score?

Here, I'll break both down. 

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 17:  Marouane Fellaini (l) of Manchester United lines up with team-mates Shinji Kagawa and Robin van Persie (r) prior to the UEFA Champions League Group A match between Manchester United and Bayer Leverkusen at Old Trafford
Michael Regan/Getty Images

Safe Winners This Week

Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City

 

Risky Plays That Could Pay Off

Southampton

 

Matches to Avoid

Manchester United vs. Arsenal, Aston Villa vs. Cardiff City, Norwich City vs. West Ham, Tottenham vs. Newcastle, Swansea City vs. Stoke City 

NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 02: John Terry of Chelsea reacts during the Barclays Premier League match between Newcastle United and Chelsea at St James' Park on November 02, 2013 in Newcastle upon Tyne, England. (Photo by Mark Runnacles/Getty I
Getty Images/Getty Images

Analysis

The Manchester United vs. Arsenal match is a betting nightmare. On one hand, Manchester United are playing as well as they have all season—they've won four in a row in all competitions—and are at home.

On the other hand, Arsenal are atop the table and are in the midst of a 14-game unbeaten streak on the road in all competitions dating back to last season. I'd avoid this match like the plague. 

Ditto for Tottenham vs. Newcastle. The Magpies are unpredictable from week to week and now have a draw against Liverpool and a win over Chelsea to go with losses to Sunderland and Hull City. 

Meanwhile, Tottenham was smoked by a mediocre West Ham team in early October, 3-0, so while they'll be favored in this match, they're far from a guaranteed winner. 

Chelsea (hosting West Brom), Everton (on the road against bottom-of-the-table Crystal Palace), Liverpool (hosting Fulham) and Manchester City (on the road against 19th-place Sunderland) all seem like great bets to earn three points this week. 

Southampton should be favored at home against a pretty good Hull City side (currently 10th on the table with 14 points), but it's far from a given. 

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 26:  Romelu Lukaku of Everton celebrates after scoring the opening goal of the game during the Barclays Premier League match between Aston Villa and Everton at Villa Park on October 26, 2013 in Birmingham, England  (Photo by
Ben Hoskins/Getty Images

Projecting This Week's Top Scorers

Look no further than the teams facing Norwich City (20 goals allowed), Crystal Palace (21 goals allowed) and Sunderland (22 goals allowed) for the top prospective scorers of the week. 

West Ham doesn't have any names that catch your attention, but Romelu Lukaku should have a very nice week against Crystal Palace, while any number of players for Manchester City could go on the goalscoring prowl for City.

Pay attention to which strikers get the start for the Citizens—Sergio Aguero, Edin Dzeko and Alvaro Negredo could all be very solid sources of goals this week.

While Arsenal have kept consecutive clean sheets against Crystal Palace and Liverpool, the dangerous United attack should be able to crack the Gunners' code for at least one goal. You would imagine former player Robin van Persie would be the one to score it.

For Arsenal, look for Olivier Giroud to get off the schneid—he has just one goal in his past six Premier League matches, though not for a lack of chances. Arsenal will create chances for him and I expect he'll execute on one of them this week. 

Finally, it's hard to imagine both Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge being held scoreless for a second straight week. The pair have been on a blistering goalscoring pace to start the season, and Fulham have allowed 15 goals this season. 

Suarez and Sturridge will each end up on the score sheet. 

 

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