College Football Picks Week 10: Breaking Down This Weekend's Biggest Games

Jeremy FuchsCorrespondent IIINovember 2, 2013

TALLAHASSEE, FL - OCTOBER 26: Jameis Winston #5 of the Florida State Seminoles throws for a touchdown pass against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the first half at Doak Campbell Stadium on October 26, 2013 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Jeff Gammons/Getty Images)
Jeff Gammons/Getty Images

There are a number of marquee games in Week 10 of the college football season, including a game with massive BCS implications.

We'll break down three of the biggest games on the schedule and tell you which teams will come away with a victory.

 

21. Michigan at 22. Michigan State

IOWA CITY, IOWA - OCTOBER 5:  Defensive end Shilique Calhoun #89, Jermaine Edmondson #39 and Matt Macksood #86 of the Michigan State Spartans sing their fight song after their match-up against the Iowa Hawkeyes on October 5, 2013 at Kinnick Stadium in Iow
Matthew Holst/Getty Images

It is a classic offense versus defense matchup, as the high-flying Michigan Wolverines travel to East Lansing to take on the stingy Michigan State defense.

The Wolverines know how to put up points. They average 42.4 points per game, which is eighth in the nation. In their last game against Indiana, Devin Gardner threw for a ridiculous 503 yards and two scores, while Jeremy Gallon caught 14 receptions for a Big Ten-record 369 yards.

Granted, the Indiana defense is pretty bad, and the Hoosiers give up a gaudy 37.1 points per game, which is 113th in the nation. But the point remains—the Wolverines can score and they have some big-time weapons.

But this is the toughest defense they will face all season. The Spartans have been incredible on defense, giving up just 12.3 points per game, good for third in the nation. In addition, they give up only 215.6 yards of offense per game, which is the best in the nation.

I don't think the Spartans are going to hold Michigan to just 12 points. But the Wolverines are not going to be able to score their usual 42 points. Michigan State's defense is just too good, and stud cornerback Darqueze Dennard should keep Gallon in check.

Look for the Spartans to pull this one off, beating their rivals by a score of 21-17. 

 

18. Oklahoma State at 15. Texas Tech

AMES, IA - OCTOBER 26: Running back Desmond Roland #26 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys drives the ball to the end zone for a touchdown in the second half of play against the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium on October 26, 2013 in Ames, Iowa. The Ok
David Purdy/Getty Images

Other than a bad game against West Virginia, Oklahoma State has been pretty good this season. The Cowboys have blown out just about every opponent they've faced.

Texas Tech had been rolling, including beating up on West Virginia, but suffered its first setback with a loss last weekend against Oklahoma.

For the most part, these are two similar teams. They both have high-powered offense—Texas Tech averages 39.8 points per game, while Oklahoma State averages 38.9 points per game—and their defenses are surprisingly good—the Red Raiders give up 21.1 points per game, and the Cowboys give up 19.6 points per game. So who comes out on top?

The key, in my mind, is the run game. We know that both teams are going to air it out, but whoever manages the clock better will win.

That's why I think the Cowboys have the edge. Desmond Roland rushes for 5.9 yards per carry, while quarterback J.W. Walsh is a dual-threat, rushing for 294 and three touchdowns.

The Red Raiders do have Kenny Williams, who has seven touchdowns, but he's not the type of back who can eat up the clock. Roland can do that.

I think it will be a shootout, and these teams are pretty evenly matched, but I like the running game of the Cowboys a bit more. Look for them to pull off the minor upset by a score of 30-27.

 

7. Miami (FL) at 3. Florida State

 

This is the matchup of the weekend. If Miami pulls off the upset, then the Seminoles will be knocked out of the national title picture. It would also catapult the Hurricanes right into that conversation.

But the 'Canes won't have it that easy. They'll have to contend with freshman sensation Jameis Winston, a Heisman contender. He has been electric and dynamic, throwing for 2,177 yards, 23 touchdowns and only four picks. He plays with a poise well beyond his years.

The Canes will also have to defend Rashad Greene, a big-play receiver who averages 17.7 yards per catch. Karlos Williams and Devonta Freeman have combined for 13 touchdowns on the ground.

The Seminoles are incredibly well balanced. But the Hurricanes give up only 17.7 points per game. Their defense is on point.

But let's be honest here. The Seminoles are a much better team. Miami's best win is against a bruised and battered Florida team. The Hurricanes had to hang on against North Carolina and Wake Forest.

Florida State, meanwhile, went into Clemson and won big. It also blew then-ranked Maryland out of the water. 

Winston is a stud, and the Seminoles have the third-ranked offense and the fourth-ranked defense. Miami is good. But it's not that good.

I think Winston and the Seminoles continue their magical season, beating up on the 'Canes by a score of 28-14.