Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
Someone else that should land in the first round is fellow junior James Michael McAdoo. Most pundits thought 2012-13 would be his final season in Chapel Hill, but he just didn't come prepared for the talent he would face as a starter.
Now he knows the drill, and if teams aren't trying to snatch him up as a lottery pick in 2014, something went really wrong.
Once again, percentages will be key.
Last season, McAdoo shot a very disappointing 44.5 percent from the floor. He was often erratic with his shot selection and had a tendency to end up out of control. A lack of a back-to-the-basket game and no additional post presence at center were major factors in his shooting percentage.
Both of those issues should be resolved for 2013-14, so there is no reason he should shoot less than 50 percent from the floor as a post player.
He will also need to get better with his free throws—for the team, at least. We know the NBA doesn't care (Dwight Howard).
McAdoo had one of the worst free-throw percentages on the squad at 57.8. What's worse is that he had 60 more attempts than anyone else. In fact, he accounted for 27 percent of Carolina's free throws.
When you're at the line that much more than everyone else, you have to bury the freebies. There is a reason they call it the charity stripe. He should shoot no worse than 65 percent, though I would like to see him land in the 70s.
There is no reason these talented Tar Heels can't perform well-above these marks. If they don't, it will be a long, painful run through the ACC gauntlet in 2014.