Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction ColumnistOctober 29, 2013

CINCINNATI, OH - OCTOBER 27:  Marvin Jones #82 of the Cincinnati Bengals runs for a touchdown during the NFL game against the New York Jets at Paul Brown Stadium on October 27, 2013 in Cincinnati, Ohio.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

The Miami Dolphins have held the upper hand over the Cincinnati Bengals over the years, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings SU and covering nine of the last 12 ATS.

Cincy will try to reverse that trend when the teams meet at Sun Life Stadium on Thursday night.

Point spread:
Dolphins opened as 1-point favorites, but it quickly swung around to -2.5 for the Bengals; the total was 42. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction
: 26.5-18.4 Bengals

Why the Bengals will cover the spread

Cincy is looking better all the time; the Bengals have won four games in a row and just destroyed the Jets by 40 points, as quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver Marvin Jones hooked up for four scores. Cincy ranks ninth in offense, eighth in defense and suddenly owns a 2.5-game lead in the AFC North. The Bengals are playing at a high level and seem capable of keeping it up.

Why the Dolphins will cover the spread

Miami has lost four games in a row, but could have won the last three. They led Baltimore at the half before losing on a late field goal; led Buffalo going into the fourth quarter before losing on another late field goal; and led New England 17-3 at the half before giving way. If they can just put four quarters together, they might be OK.

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark NFL computer is predicting a Bengals outright victory and for the game to play OVER its total. Cincy, on average, is holding the ball for over 31 minutes per game, while the 'Fins are only holding the ball for about 28.5 minutes per game. And in the NFL, the team that wins the time-of-possession battle covers the spread almost 70 percent of the time. Back the Bengals.


Cincinnati is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing Miami.

Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.