Bleacher Report's College Football Top25: Preseason
By on August 29, 2007
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Here at the Bleacher Report, we generally take a firm stance against preseason college football polls.
If we don’t know who Notre Dame’s starting quarterback is going to be, how can we accurately place the Irish among college football’s elite?
Paranoid coaches work diligently to keep writers out of summer drills, because they don’t want any information about their team leaked to opposing coaches. As of today, the only people who are less informed than the Associated Press are the coaches themselves.
Which must be why so much attention is paid to each of their preseason rankings, right?
Quite frankly, we couldn’t resist either.
We’ve asked campus writers, popular bloggers, and contributors to the Bleacher Report college football community to cast their ballots without having watched a single snap. Once games are actually played, the BR Top25 will be the most inclusive, transparent, and authoritative ranking system for fans.
Until then, take these picks with a grain of salt, and feel free to offer your own brash predictions.
Note: 2006 records in parentheses. Opponents listed with average spread.
This Week: Idaho +46
Key Games: at Nebraska 9/15, at Notre Dame 10/20, at Oregon 10/27, at Cal 11/10, UCLA 12/1
No surprise here. Since a 32-18 trouncing of Michigan in the Rose Bowl, the Trojans have been the clear pick to play in the national championship game. What's more, John David Booty is in prime position to claim an unprecedented fourth Heisman trophy in the program’s last six seasons.
All the ingredients are there: an experienced quarterback, a stable full of running backs, a lights-out defense, and a head coach who’s led multiple title runs.
But then there's the schedule.
USC will play four of its five toughest opponents on the road, where the last nine Trojan losses have occurred. If Troy suffers an Oregon State-type slip up this year, they run the risk of losing a BCS bid to a pair of unbeatens.
Pete Carroll and company will extend a Pac-10 record 33 game home winning streak in the opener against Idaho, a former foe from the Pacific Coast Conference. Their most recent meeting was in 1929, a 72-0 Trojan shut out. Consider taking USC minus-72 this Saturday.
This Week: Thursday at Mississippi St. +18.5
Key Games: Virginia Tech 9/8, Florida 10/6, Auburn 10/20, at Alabama 11/3, Arkansas 11/23
While the Trojans have a road-heavy slate, many of their top pursuers—including the Bayou Bengals—have much more favorable home set-ups.
LSU will host all four of the teams with preseason rankings on its schedule.
Then there’s that one road game. Saturday, November 3, in Tuscaloosa.
Nick Saban led the Tigers to the national title in 2003, then bolted for the NFL the following 2004 season. Now he’s the highest paid coach in college football, just across the SEC West.
We’ll get an early look at LSU Thursday night, when fifth-year senior Matt Flynn and the Tigers face Mississippi State.
This Week: Arkansas St. +39
Key Games: TCU 9/8, Oklahoma 10/6, Nebraska 10/27, at OSU 11/3, at Texas A&M 11/23
Speaking of wealthy coaches, Mack Brown was given a two year contract extension this week that includes a $100,000 bonus to be paid out over the weekend.
As if the Texas coach needed another reason to look forward to Saturday, right?
You could argue that Brown got even better news on Tuesday, when wideout Limas Sweed declared his injured left wrist game-ready. Opting to return to Texas for his senior season, Sweed rivals OSU’s Adarius Bowman for top receiving honors in the Big XII, and will help quarterback Colt McCoy rack up Heisman numbers.
It’s easy to forget the fact that Texas was 9-1 heading to Manhattan last year, where they lost McCoy, a 45-42 decision against Kansas State, and the South’s Big XII Championship berth. Despite that injury, McCoy registered arguably the most productive freshman season in NCAA history and rallied for a bowl win over Iowa.
If his numbers are anywhere near as good this season, the Longhorns will be tough to keep out of the BCS Championship game.
This Week: Appalachian St. Off
Key Games: Oregon 9/8, Notre Dame 9/15, Penn St. 9/22, at Wisconsin 11/10, Ohio St 11/17
Beat Ohio State. Win a BCS game. Or make a change.
The Big Ten favorites have to get over the hump this season to restore the integrity of their coach, program and conference.
Lloyd Carr has lost five of six to Tressel and the Buckeyes. He’s lost five of the last six bowl games, including four in a row. And because the Wolverines weren’t alone in BCS bowl embarrassment back in January, the Big Ten’s reputation needs some rebuilding.
Replacing seven defensive starters is a tall task—but one that Carr’s nemesis managed quite seamlessly last season in Columbus. The Wolverines have a Heisman frontrunner at running back in Mike Hart and another one under center, Chad Henne.
It’s now or never.
This Week: Western Michigan +23.5
Key Games: at South Florida 9/28, at Rutgers 10/27, Louisville 11/8
Henne and Hart aren’t the only backfield pairing with Heisman hopes.
In Morgantown, Rich Rodriguez is thanking the NFL profusely for its age restrictions, ensuring that juniors Pat White and Steve Slaton are back to battle for another Big East crown.
And make no mistake, it will be a battle. A very concentrated, four-team battle.
Louisville may have the most NFL ready quarterback in Brian Brohm. Ray Rice and Rutgers continue to chop. Jim Leavitt and the Bulls of South Florida are coming off a nine-win season and have more than proven their upset prowess.
The Big East’s BCS berth will be handed out November 8th following the West Virginia - Louisville slugfest. It remains to be seen whether that ticket will take the winner to Miami or New Orleans in January.
This Week: Western Kentucky Off
Key Games: Tennessee 9/15, Auburn 9/29, at LSU 10/6, at Georgia 10/27, Florida St. 11/24
The Irish got a great coach in Charlie Weis. But even the most ardent Notre Dame fan has to admit that they lost out when Urban Meyer chose Florida.
After winning a national championship in just his second season in Gainesville, Meyer has his Gators right back in the BCS discussion in 2007.
Florida returns just 10 scholarship seniors and 11 scholarship juniors.
That’s unheard of.
In fact, it’s the fewest number of upperclassmen in the SEC.
Still, the Gators are a consensus top ten team and an odds-on favorite to represent the SEC East.
It’s a testament to Meyer’s recruiting aptitude and his ability to coach up young talent. And if that talent matures quickly with three straight home games to open the season, the Gators have a chance to be the first team to go back-to-back in the SEC since Tennessee did it in 1997-98.
This Week: Washington State +14
Key Games: at Penn St. 10/13, at Ohio St. 11/3, Michigan 11/10
The trendy pick to win the Big Ten, Wisconsin is fresh off a 12-1 campaign and a Capital One Bowl win in its first season under head coach Bret Bielema.
Despite the transition from Barry to Bielema, the Wisconsin program has been a model of consistency. No Big Ten school has won more games since the start of the 2004 season.
The caveat to last year’s success was that the Badgers didn’t have to contend with conference champ Ohio State. Wisky will get that chance in 2007, however, when they travel to The ‘Shoe in Week 10.
As is the tradition in the Big Ten, the conference title won’t be decided until November, when the Badgers, Buckeyes and Wolverines do battle.
This Week: Youngstown St. Off
Key Games: at Washington 9/15, at Penn St. 10/27, Wisconsin 11/3, at Michigan 11/17
While the bowl season capped a banner year for the Badgers, conference foe Ohio State is still smarting from their BCS beat down.
Unless you’re USC, replacing a Heisman Trophy winner is never easy. Losing your leading rusher and top two receivers doesn’t help either.
Still, Jim Tressel has a proven track record of reloading, and preseason pollsters continue to have faith in his Ohio State program.
He also has the benefit of a very mundane eight-game stretch to open the season. The Buckeyes won’t be tested by a ranked team until they travel to Penn State in late October. By then, the six new starters on both offense and defense will have plenty of game experience and probably a healthy dose of confidence.
Not to mention a fire that will be continually stoked by the memory of the embarrassment in Glendale.
This Week: East Carolina +26
Key Games: at LSU 9/8, Boston College 10/25, at Georgia Tech 11/1, Florida St. 11/10, Miami 11/17
What more can be written about the emotions at Virginia Tech that hasn’t already been articulated beyond eloquently in this forum?
The Hokies' national championship aspirations hinge on a Week 2 date with LSU, a team that knows a thing or two about responding to community tragedy.
That said, the ACC in undoubtedly Va Tech’s for the taking. Florida State and Miami won’t be as abysmal as they were a year ago, but those are still eminently winnable games, especially at home. And it shouldn’t take an unbeaten record to win that conference this season.
This Week: North Texas +40.5
Key Games: Miami 9/8, at Texas 10/6, Texas A&M 11/3, Oklahoma St. 11/24
The Mean Green of North Texas can run all the Statue of Liberty plays it wants—it won’t make one bit of difference this Saturday, or this year for that matter.
Bob Stoops may have his most determined bunch of Sooners—a unit that overachieved for 12 games and 45 minutes of last season.
This side of the SEC, the Big XII South will prove to be the toast of college football in 2007. And while Texas may be the best of the bunch, Oklahoma won’t be far behind if Sam Bradford can give them consistency under center.
Senior running back Allen Patrick can sit out this weekend against North Texas as he nurses an ankle injury. In fact, it may prove to be the best thing for Oklahoma if redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray has success in the starting role on Saturday. However, the Sooners will need Patrick at full strength next week when Miami comes calling.
This Week: Thursday, Murray State
This Week: Tennessee
This Week: at Stanford
This Week: Oklahoma St.
This Week: Thursday, Buffalo
#16 Arkansas (10-4)
This Week: Troy
#17 Auburn (11-2)
This Week: Kansas St.
#18 Penn State (9-4)
This Week: Florida International
#19 Tennessee (9-4)
This Week: at California
#20 Nebraska (9-5)
This Week: Nevada
#21 Boise State (13-0)
This Week: Weber St.
#22 Hawaii (11-3)
This Week: Northern Colorado
#23 TCU (11-2)
This Week: Baylor
#24 Boston College (10-3)
This Week: Wake Forest
#25 Florida State (7-6)
This Week: Monday at Clemson
Others receiving votes: Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Missouri, Notre Dame, Oregon, Oregon St., Alabama, Oklahoma St., Miami, Clemson, South Carolina
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