NFL Week 9 Lines, Spreads and Odds for Each Game

Brandon Alisoglu@@BrandonAlisogluCorrespondent IOctober 29, 2013

NFL Week 9 Lines, Spreads and Odds for Each Game

0 of 13

    Shh. Nobody make a sound. 

    I don't want to scare my success away. 

    It's the same principle used for lifting weights or dealing with a girl. Too much, too quick, and you'll hurt yourself by coming on too strong.

    So allow me a quick thank you to Jimmy the Greek for accepting my Barry Sanders' rookie card offering last week. May points be with you as you peruse my NFL Week 9 picks against the spread.

    Last Week's Record: 7-6

    Season Record: 48-69-3

    All lines are courtesy of footballlocks.com. All advanced metrics and rankings were provided by Pro Football Focus and require a subscription. 

     

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

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    Huh? 

    That's my official analysis when I look at this line. I can't find a reason this line isn't at least three points.

    It can't be due to the Miami Dolphins' home-field advantage. The Phins have a losing record at Sun Life Stadium, and the Cincinnati Bengals have won their last two on the road.

    Maybe the oddsmakers are worried about a sloppy performance on a few days' rest. But the short prep time would seemingly reward superior talent and continuity, since better players executing familiar plays should be an advantage over inferior, inexperienced guys. 

    Again, that favors the loaded Bengals, who have a very similar lineup to last year.

    Last guess here, and I'm grasping at straws, but perhaps Vegas thinks this is a letdown game for Cincy. However, what is there about the Dolphins, a team that doesn't do anything particularly well, that screams "you don't need a full field goal?" 

    I'm not taking that trust fall. 

    Pick: Bengals -2.5

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers (-7.5)

2 of 13

    I'm just not ready for that type of commitment yet.

    I've been taking things slowly with the Carolina Panthers. I've gone from asserting their decency to suggesting they're good. 

    But now, you want me to perform such reckless acts like laying more than a touchdown against Matt Ryan? My heart (and my wallet) won't let me do that. 

    For all the talk about the Atlanta Falcons' offensive injuries, you'd assume Ryan's season was a disaster. It isn't. In fact, Ryan is quietly having an incredible year despite the numerous obstacles.

    And running back Steven Jackson now has a week of football under his belt since returning from injury. I'm not calling for a Falcons upset, but that extra half-point looms too large in this circumstance.  

    Pick: Falcons +7.5

Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)

3 of 13

    The Minnesota Vikings are beyond bad. 

    They're 0-16 horrendous. They just happen to have a win.

    The Dallas Cowboys aren't great, but they're talented. The presumptive return of running back DeMarco Murray will keep the high-octane offense grounded, providing quarterback Tony Romo with easier conversion situations. 

    Sure, you can worry about the Cowboys defense if you'd like. But is there any scenario where a Vikings quarterback puts up a dominant game against anyone? How about even a competent performance?

    That question alone is enough to lay those points. 

    Pick: Cowboys +10.5

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) vs. New York Jets

4 of 13

    This isn't about the New York Jets getting gutted by the Bengals. We've already established that Cincy is good.

    The Jets aren't as bad as that loss, but they aren't as good as their record, either. 

    Rookie-led teams are always unpredictable and often underwhelming. Neither of those are helpful when playing football against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.

    There just aren't enough points here to take Geno Smith over Brees. That comparison alone is worth 17, much less 5.5. 

    Pick: Saints -5.5

Tennessee Titans (-4) vs. St. Louis Rams

5 of 13

    When the gods provide you with multiple home dogs to choose from, you can't waste such an honor. At least, that's the logic I'm using to justify a break from my beloved Tennessee Titans.

    The surging St. Louis Rams defensive line also plays a huge role in this decision. Defensive end Robert Quinn hates quarterbacks, having racked up 10 sacks in eight games, and his dominance is forcing the offensive line to ease up on bookend Chris Long. 

    That could be a problem for the Tennessee Titans. Quarterback Jake Locker has already missed time thanks to an offensive line that has been more hype than substance. 

    This feels like one point too many.

    Picks: Rams +4

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

6 of 13

    Shh. Nobody make a sound. 

    I don't want to scare my success away. 

    It's the same principle used for lifting weights or dealing with a girl. Too much, too quick, and you'll hurt yourself by coming on too strong.

    So allow me a quick thank you to Jimmy the Greek for accepting my Barry Sanders' rookie card offering last week. May points be with you as you peruse my NFL Week 9 picks against the spread.

    Last Week's Record: 7-6

    Season Record: 48-69-3

    All lines are courtesy of footballlocks.com. All advanced metrics and rankings were provided by Pro Football Focus and require a subscription. 

     

San Diego Chargers vs. Washington Redskins (PK)

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    In four of the Washington Redskins' five losses, the opponent had a solid quarterback. In both of their wins, they didn't. 

    Philip Rivers is a solid quarterback.

    Plus, the San Diego Chargers can at least plug a few gaps against the run. Occasionally, the defense even stops somebody.

    The Redskins? Not so much. They're more like 11 travel agents doing their best to make sure an opposing offense gets to where it wants to go.

    Pick: Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) vs. Oakland Raiders

8 of 13

    Remember how bad I said the Vikings are? The Philadelphia Eagles are only slightly better, and they lose that thin advantage with rookie Matt Barkley under center.

    No, I don't care if Nick Foles comes back, either.

    Foles had a good run against some porous defenses. There's no reason to think he can improve on his last performance (46.2 quarterback rating) against a much-better-than-you-realize Oakland Raiders defense.

    The Eagles are inclined to let anybody pass against them, so dual-threat quarterback Terrelle Pryor should rebound from two lackluster passing performances. 

    Oh, and the Raiders are a home dog. That is all.

    Pick: Raiders +1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-16.5)

9 of 13

    The Seattle Seahawks offensive line was officially put on notice by the Rams. Luckily, they have a bye play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week.

    I understand your apprehension though. That's a hefty price for a team that gave you buyer's remorse last week.

    But these are still the Super Bowl-contending Seahawks. That defense will force rookie quarterback Mike Glennon into plenty of mistakes, setting up head coach Greg Schiano's swan song on Monday Night Football the following week. 

    I've probably made a mistake by trusting the Rams too much because of their MNF performance. Don't compound that error by dumping Seattle. 

    Pick: Seahawks -16.5

Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Cleveland Browns

10 of 13

    I know the Baltimore Ravens didn't play last week, so this line isn't an overreaction to a dominant performance. 

    The three-point spread certainly isn't a product of Baltimore's road prowess. They're 1-3, including an embarrassing loss at rival Pittsburgh.

    And if you say there's no shame in losing to a divisional rival, you'd be wrong. The Steelers aren't good.  

    So maybe the Ravens aren't, either. At least not three points better than the Cleveland Browns' stingy defense at home. 

    Pick: Browns +3

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots (-7)

11 of 13

    Too many people are throwing dirt on Tom Brady. That makes me nervous.

    Wouldn't it be just like Brady to deliver an I'm-still-Tom-Brady beatdown on the Pittsburgh Steelers? 

    Not against the Steelers' second-ranked passing defense, you say? That's cute. That defense allowed Matt Cassel to post 248 yards and a couple scores. 

    I'm not betting against Brady. Not with Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola both feeling healthy.

    Pick: Patriots -7

     

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans

12 of 13

    Do you really expect me to trust unheralded rookie quarterback Case Keenum against one of the league's better teams? 

    Do you really believe that he can replicate his 110.6 quarterback rating against the physical Indianapolis Colts defense?

    Because I don't. And I can't really believe that this spread is only 2.5 points. 

    A field goal wins and covers the spread for the Colts? Sign me up.

    And stop asking so many questions. It's annoying. 

    Pick: Colts -2.5

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (-11)

13 of 13

    All I could think about when I saw this line was I get Matt Forte and 11 points. Sounds great.

    But that warm, fuzzy feeling faded quickly. And was replaced by the hard, cold reality that the Green Bay Packers are much more than just Aaron Rodgers.

    There's the defense that completely stuffs the run. There's Eddie Lacy, who is hitting his stride as an NFL rusher. 

    There's also Josh McCown starting under center for the Chicago Bears, which means there will be even less room for Forte to operate. 

    I can't believe I'm doing this. 

    Pick: Packers -11