Around this time every year Chad Ford gets a hard-on. Why? Underclassmen continue to declare for the draft and it is his job to update the NBA Draft Big Board and breakdown the potential placement in the draft for each early-entry.
His job is easy, my job is to sort through the laundry list of players who have already announced their intentions to go pro and breakdown which players are making dumb decisions.
Keep in mind that some of these players haven't signed with agents and therefore may return to school. I did not take that fact into account...here it goes.
1. Donte Greene/Fr.- Syracuse University
Greene is the headliner of this group for the sole reason that he is also the most talented player on this list and most likely will be a good if not great NBA player when his time comes. But his time is not now.
Consider the list of swingmen that are slated to go ahead of him. Eric Gordon, Jerryd Bayless, Chase Budinger, O.J. Mayo, Brandon Rush ... the list goes on and on. I am not doubting Greene's talents. He is a terrific player who can shoot from outside, penetrate, and sky for rebounds, but everyone who watches college basketball watched him hit the freshman wall in the second half of the season.
As the season progressed, his legs lost some of their lift, his shot-selection became more and more erratic, and his overall performance declined slowly. He could still be a late first round draft pick this year, but he still shouldn't go.
Consider that he will get another year under Jim Boeheim, another year with rapidly improving point guard Johnny Flynn, and another year would allow him to escape the incredible depth of this draft.
Aside from Tyreke Evans, next year's freshman class looks weaker than this year's, and Greene, with a good season, could potentially put himself in the top-15 picks if he decides to stay in school.
Green has yet to hire an agent.
2. Ronald Steele/Jr.-Alabama
This is the most unfortunate case I have to write about, but it's also one of the more obvious choices of players who should stay.
Everyone remembers the Ronald Steele of 2005-2006. The sophomore point guard that was going to be a sure-fire first round draft pick and was going to make some NBA team very happy. He averaged over 14.0 points per game and nearly five assists.
Then came knee operation No. 1, and then No. 2, and then No. 3.
Somewhere in there the gutsy Steele sandwiched his junior season, where his play clearly showed effects of the surgeries. His draft stock plummeted and he was forced to sit out this entire season due to problems with the pain in his knee.
Now he has declared for the draft, hoping that he can show NBA scouts during workouts that he is 100 percent, and that he is ready for the NBA. It is incredibly unlikely that his individual workouts for NBA scouts will impress them more than a productive senior season at Alabama. Although Richard Hendrix declared for the draft, JaMychal Green is coming in, and Alonzo Gee and Mychal Riley return on the wings to give Steele someone to pass to.
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I feel for Ronald Steele, I really do. Two years ago he would have been a first round draft pick and now he on the brink of finishing his basketball career in disappointment. My heart wants him to return to Alabama and watch him succeed there, and that's what I think he should do.
Ronald Steele has not signed an agent.
3. Marreese Speights/So.- University of Florida
Speights is another player on this list who has real NBA potential, but is just choosing the wrong time to enter the draft.
Last year he was charged with being the leader for a young Florida team that was playing a lot of freshman, and while his stats improved, the Gators floundered, prompting Billy Donovan to question whether they even improved during the season.
Speights is a wide-body. At 6'10'' 245 lbs., Speights is big enough to score in the post, and nimble enough to step outside and knock down a 15-foot jump-shot, something NBA scouts covet in big men nowadays.
But there were times last year when he would disappear during key games, and some would argue that he is not even the best player on his team, that honor would go to Nick Calathes. He needs to be more assertive around the rim, and while honing his mid-range game is important, he should not be focusing on that part of his game.
That being said, the reason he shouldn't have declared for the draft and the reason why he should return to school is because he can make a lot more money for himself by leading the Gators back to the tournament and entering next year. This year's draft is chalk-full of big men with a lot of upside and a lot of potential. Players like DeAndre Jordan, Robin Lopez, and J.J. Hickson may not have produced like Speights, but they may still get drafted first based on potential.
He should wait a year, play with a more experienced Calathes, Jai Lucas, Dan Werner, and Chandler Parsons, have a productive junior season, go pro and assure himself a spot in the lottery.
Marreese Speights has not signed an agent.
4. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute/Jr.-UCLA
Mbah a Moute is the first of these final two players whose decision to go pro makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. There has not been a single report by any reputable draft analyst that has Mbah a Moute amongst the top 30 players in this year's draft.
After his freshman season, scouts were championing him as a top-20 pick in the draft, but he regressed in his sophomore season, and while he played better this season, he was still option four or five for his UCLA team.
He is a terrific athlete, and his long arms make him a good defender. But he is a 'tweener. He is a center built into a modern-day small forward's body. He is only 6'7'' and 215 lbs. That is probably smaller than Carmelo Anthony, and while Mbah a Moute might be a better player around the rim, he still lacks any sort of 15-foot game.
He will be the focal point of the offense in his senior season, and my guess is that another year under the tutelage of Ben Howland will help him develop some much needed ball-handling and shooting ability so that he can impress draftniks even more the following year.
Some of these 'tweeners have had success in the NBA in recent drafts and have carved a niche for themselves (I am looking at you Glen Davis and Paul Millsap). But what Mbah a Moute lacks that these players exhibit is tenacious rebounding skills. Millsap led the country in rebounding his sophomore and junior year and Davis was good for eight per game. Mbah a Moute averaged six per game this season, his worst total as a Bruin.
ONE MORE YEAR!
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute has not signed an agent.
5. Derrick Caracter/So.-Louisville
This is without a doubt one of the most predictable and dumbest decisions of the 2008 early entries so far.
If I were an NBA GM, and I have been keeping track of Caracter's career at Louisville, I would not touch him with a 10-foot pole despite his talent. We are talking about a guy who hasn't played a full season with the Cardinals yet because Pitino keeps suspending him, and Pitino is not exactly a disciplinarian.
I first read about Caracter as a 6'9'', 300 lb. fifth grader in Sports Illustrated being hailed as the next big talent, and it seems as if they got at least part of it right as far as talent is concerned.
Caracter is a good player, every time he is on the floor he makes the Cardinals better, that's why Pitino continued to reinstate him. He has great hands, is extremely large, and is great at getting position for defensive and offensive rebounds alike.
Aside from the questions about his off-court issues, his desire, and his conditioning continue to be the focal points of the scouts' scrutiny. This guy has the talent to play in the NBA if he could only get his head screwed on straight.
This kid should have stayed in school, he should have let sportswriters write a redemption story or two about him, and then he should have declared for the draft. Now it is all too late because the big fella already signed an agent.
Derrick Caracter has signed an agent, thus exhausting his college eligibility.
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4 months ago
I hope Greene stays—not for his own sake but because I am a Warrior fan and I think he would make a great fit in Golden State's system. If he goes back to school he is a top 8 pick next year, no doubt.
4 months ago
What about J.J. Hickson?
4 months ago
It's true, J.J. Hickson was on my short list of players who shouldn't go to the draft, but in the end I chose Mbah a Moute over Hickson because I think because of potential, Hickson has a better chance of going high in the draft than Mbah a Moute does
4 months ago
Have to concur with Michael on JJ Hickson and while we're considering him, let's all be honest, would YOU want to go back to NC State if you were JJ Hickson? Didn't think so. I think he's made the right decision.
I haven't seen any of these gentlemen play extensively, so I can't vouch for their skills too much. I did see Green play against the Wahoos and I remember coming away underwhelmed by his skill and thinking he jacked up way too many bad shots. A check of the box score sort of confirmed my suspicions (20 pts on 19 shots - a bad sign), but it appears he did have 10 boards, which I didn't remember. Either way, I remember thinking that Flynn was a little more impressive.
4 months ago
Ron Steele is coming back for sure. No team is not going to put him in the first round, which is what it would take for him to leave. Hendrix is not going to be drafted early either and would be stupid to go. Mykal Riley is graduating, so that 2 spot is up for grabs next season. Also, if Ron comes back, he will be playing with his little brother. Alabama is bringing in 3 top-50 recruits next season, only one of two schools whose entire recruiting class is coming from the top-50. Bama has the chance to be good next year, but it lies more on the coach than the players.
Also, Speights declaring was hilarious. He is no where near the top as far as SEC post men go. He needs to come back for 2 more years.
4 months ago
Steele is a senior, not a junior.
4 months ago
I agree that greene should stay but I also think that J.J Hickson Should be there
4 months ago
Steele will be a Sr next season due to a redshirt this past season because of multiple knee surgeries.
4 months ago
Couldn't agree with you more about Mbah a Moute. There's no question about his hops, but another year of seasoning would go a long way to improving his chances of catching on in the NBA. Even if drafted, what NBA team would he make? Can't think of a one.
Terrific analysis Michael.
4 months ago
Caracter has not signed with an agent sorry but you're wrong.
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