Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

New England has beaten division-rival Miami six times in a row, going 4-2 ATS in that span, and 10 of the last 12 times they've met in Foxboro. The Pats and Fins renew acquaintances Sunday at Gillette Stadium.

 

Point Spread

Patriots opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5. (Line updates and Matchup report)

 

Computer Prediction

23.1-19.0 Patriots

 

Why the Dolphins Can Cover the Spread

Miami may have lost three games in a row, but the last two have come by a total of five points. The Fish lost on a field goal with two minutes to go two weeks ago against Baltimore, and last week they lost on a field goal with 30 seconds to go against Buffalo. Conceivably Miami could be 5-1, instead of 3-3.

And while they've lost six straight to New England, the Dolphins have covered the spread (as dogs, of course) in two of the last three.

 

Why the Patriots Can Cover the Spread

New England is coming off a tough loss at the Jets, in which a strange 15-yard penalty in overtime led to the Patriots' demise. The Pats have alternated wins and losses the last four weeks, so according to that trend, they're due for another victory. And they've certainly had Miami's number over the last decade or so.

New England never loses at home in October, either (15-0 SU, 10-4-1 ATS).

 

Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is calling for a New England victory but a Miami cover, and for the game to stay UNDER on the total. The Dolphins started 3-0 this year, but that was too good to last for too longthey aren't that good. The Patriots, meanwhile, might be a little peeved after losing the way they did last Sunday.

New England has dominated this series recently, and there's no reason to think that won't continue this Sunday. Give the points and take the Pats.

 

Trends

The Dolphins are 2-10 SU at New England since 2001.

The Pats had their 12-game divisional win streak snapped by Jets last week.

The Patriots have won 15 straight October home games SU (10-4-1 ATS).

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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