Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistOctober 23, 2013

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 02:  John Phillips #89 of the Dallas Cowboys at Cowboys Stadium on October 2, 2011 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Dallas and Detroit hooked up for a wild game two Octobers ago, a Lions victory at Cowboys Stadium. That game cruised OVER its total, as have six of the last seven meetings between these two teams.

On Sunday Detroit hosts Dallas in the perfect playing conditions at Ford Field.

Point spread: Lions opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 51. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction:
29.3-25.9 Cowboys

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas is 6-1 ATS already this season, after holding the Eagles to three points in Philly last Sunday. The Cowboys aren't doing any one thing especially well; the offense ranks 13th in the league, the defense 29th. But they've won two in a row to take over first place in the NFC East, and they could have conceivably won each of the three games they lost.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Of Detroit's three losses, two could have been won; the Lions gave up a touchdown with two minutes to go on to lose at Arizona, and last week lost on a 54-yard field goal at the buzzer to Cincinnati.

Detroit ranks seventh in total offense, and while its defense ranks 31st, it probably won't have to deal with Dallas RB DeMarco Murray, who's considered questionable with a knee injury. Also, the Lions know how to beat the Cowboys, after rallying from down 27-3 to win 34-30 in that game two years ago in Arlington.

Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is calling for Dallas to win a shootout that plays OVER on the total. But the Cowboys might once again have to play without both Murray and DE DeMarcus Ware. Also, Dallas won in Philly last week, while Detroit lost at home to the Bengals. So the “reversal” theory applies here. Take the Lions on the short spread.


The Lions are 2-7 ATS past nine seasons before a bye week.

Six of the past seven meetings played OVER the total.

UNDER is 9-1 past 10 Cowboys games as road underdogs.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games at home.

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