Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction ColumnistOctober 23, 2013

KANSAS CITY, MO - OCTOBER 20:  Running back Jamaal Charles #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs rushes past defensive end Tim Jamison #96 of the Houston Texans for a first down during the second half on October 20, 2013 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.  Kansas City won 17-16. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images)
Peter Aiken/Getty Images

Regardless of its great start to this season Kansas City is still just 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite. This week, the Chiefs are favored again at home, this time over 3-4 Cleveland.

Point spread: Chiefs opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 39. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction
: 29.4-14.4 Chiefs

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland is not going to scare anyone on offense, but defensively the Browns ain't too bad. Even after losing at Green Bay last week Cleveland ranks seventh in total defense and ninth against the run.

And even though they've lost four times this year, last week was really the first time the Browns weren't in the game. Finally, Cleveland beat KC just last December by a 30-7 score.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City, already 5-2 ATS on the season, is averaging 120 YPG on the ground and ranks fifth in total defense. In the NFL, teams that out-rush their opponents cover the spread about 70 percent of the time. The Chiefs also still lead the league with a +11 turnover ratio, and teams that win the turnover battle cover the spread about 75 percent of the time.

Finally, KC lost that game to the Browns last year with Brady Quinn at QB. Alex Smith, who's 26-5-1 his last 32 games as an NFL starter, is a step up from Quinn.

Smart Picks

OddsShark's NFL computer is predicting a Chiefs win/cover, and an OVER. Brandon Weeden once again looked bad at QB Sunday for the Browns, who must be thinking about another option.

But do they think they're going to get anything better from Jason Campbell? KC isn't quite a dominating force, but it should have enough to take care of business in this one, despite their weak record since 2007 as home chalk (5-16-1 ATS). There are also some solid UNDER trends (listed below).


UNDER is 8-1-1 past 10 Kansas City home games

UNDER is 11-2-1 past 14 Chiefs games as home favorites

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.