Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games, while Buffalo is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as a road dog.

Those trends might come into play Sunday as the 5-1 Saints host the 3-4 Bills at the Superdome, where the computer’s prediction is almost perfectly in line with the spread.

 

Point Spread

Saints opened as 11.5-point favorites; the total was 50. (Line updates and Matchup report)

 

Computer Prediction

30.2-18.8 Saints

 

Why the Bills Can Cover the Spread

Buffalo may be having trouble on the road recently, but it kicked a late field goal to beat the Dolphins in Miami last Sunday 23-21. So the Bills are now 5-2 ATS on the season. They rank fifth in the league in rushing, and they get to go against New Orleans' 22nd-ranked run defense. Buffalo is also 2-0 ATS with Thaddeus Lewis at QB.

 

Why the Saints Can Cover the Spread

New Orleans is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS with Coach Payton back on the sidelines, and those records would be even better if they hadn't blown that game at New England two weeks ago. The Saints now come back angry and off their bye week, plenty rested, ready to explode.

The offense ranks sixth overall, Drew Brees keeps his QB rating above 100, Rob Ryan's defense ranks 11th and as a team they're plus-five on turnovers. Overall, the Saints are 18-4 ATS in their past 22 as a home favorite.

 

Smart Pick

OddsShark's NFL computer is picking the Saints to win, but for the Bills to eke out a cover, and for the game to squeeze UNDER its total. New Orleans looks like the team that won the Super Bowl a few years back, moving the ball almost at will on offense and hitting people hard on defense.

Buffalo has weathered its situation at quarterback so far, but staying in Sunday's game might be a tough task.

Give the points and go with the Saints.

 

Trends

Road team is 6-2 SU between these teams since 1980

Bills 3-9 ATS past 12 games as road dog

Saints 7-2 ATS past nine home games

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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