UCLA Bruins vs. Oregon Ducks: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistOctober 23, 2013

EUGENE, OR - DECEMBER 02 : Defensive end Dion Jordan #96 of the Oregon Ducks closes in on quarterback Kevin Prince #4 of the UCLA Bruins in the second quarter of the Pac-12 Championship game at Autzen Stadium on December 2, 2011 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
Steve Dykes/Getty Images

How dominant is Oregon? How often do you see the No. 12-rated team in the nation getting 22 points at the betting window? The Ducks lay more than three touchdowns in a conference battle against the UCLA Bruins and the money keeps pouring in on Oregon, according to OddsShark.com.

Point spread: Oregon opened as 22-point favorites; the total was 70.5 as of Wednesday. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 58-30 Oregon

Why the Bruins can cover the spread

The numbers tell the story of how legitimate this team is, as the Bruins are ranked ninth in the nation in third-down conversion defense (0.29), ninth in the nation in third-down conversion percentage (.520), 15th in the nation in total offense (500.2) and 18th in the nation in scoring defense (19.2). They're capable of staying in this one.

Why the Ducks can cover the spread

Shunned by the BCS standings, Oregon will be dangerous for the next couple of weeks knowing it needs wins by large margins to tweak what the computer thinks about it. The Ducks are a close third behind Florida State in the first Bowl Championship Series standings, and would get a boost with a win over nationally ranked UCLA.

They win at home and they cover as favorites, according to the OddsShark.com game trends, so there is no reason to doubt them.

Smart Pick

The Ducks have scored at least 55 points in six of their seven games this season and they may be out to score 70 points for the first time this season. The Bruins are in after a disappointing loss to Stanford, 24-10, a setback that could send them into a downward spiral since they now take on the high-powered Ducks.

Trends:

The Ducks have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 home games.

Oregon is 6-1 ATS in seven home games as chalk of 20 or more points.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.