Kentucky vs. Mississippi State: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistOctober 23, 2013

LEXINGTON, KY - OCTOBER 06:  Jalen Whitlow #13 of the Kentucky Wildcats is sacked by Josh Boyd #97 of the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the SEC game at Commonwealth Stadium on October 6, 2012 in Lexington, Kentucky.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have had an easy time on the field and at the payout window in their recent football meetings with SEC rival Kentucky. Can they do the same Thursday night while spotting the Wildcats 10 points on the Week 9 spread?

Point spread: Miss State opened as 11-point favorites; the total was 56. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: Bulldogs, 31-16


Why the Wildcats can cover the spread

The Wildcats have played a punishing schedule in facing four teams that have ranked in the Top Five this season. So, if quality of competition is a handicapping factor, Kentucky knows it may have an easier time against Mississippi State. Do the Wildcats wilt or thrive in this situation?

Kentucky has disappointed its supporters six times in a row against the Bulldogs (0-6 ATS), according to the searchable college football database, so they are due for a bounce game.


Why the Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs have been excellent at home in the tough SEC, riding a 10-2 mark straight up (SU) in their past dozen home games. When laying points at home, they are even better at 11-0 SU and 9-2 against the spread (ATS) in 11 games as home chalk. Kentucky is a young team, playing on a short week in a hostile environment.

None of those factors bode well for Kentucky staying close here. Neither does Kentucky’s 2-9 ATS mark in 11 conference games.


Smart Pick

The OddsShark predictor computer believes Mississippi State will win and cover here. They are 6-2 ATS in eight recent home games against the SEC and have the superior roster to combat a short week. The computer should be close here, but it could be even more one-sided in favor of the Bulldogs.



Kentucky is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games on the road

Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against Kentucky


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