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Fantasy Football Week 8: Updated Trade Value for Top 100 Players

LANDOVER, MD - OCTOBER 20:  Matt Forte #22 of the Chicago Bears celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the first quarter against the Washington Redskins during an NFL game at FedExField on October 20, 2013 in Landover, Maryland.  (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images
Timothy RappFeatured ColumnistOctober 24, 2013

We've all seen it.

A nervous guy or gal makes a few too many corny jokes on a first date. A prospective employee spends way too much time listing off accomplishments in a job interview rather than answering the questions presented to him or her. Owners of monster trucks.

Sometimes we all overcompensate.

But you should never, ever overcompensate when making a fantasy football trade unless it is absolutely necessary. You never want to come out of a trade weaker overall because you overpaid to improve one position of need. 

That's where I come in. With my handy trade-value chart, you'll never overcompensate or get ripped off in a trade again. Because nobody wants to see you become your league's version of a monster-truck owner every time you make a deal.

 

Notes: The top 100 players were determined by using the current ESPN standard-scoring league rankings, calculating each player's "value over replacement player" (VORP for short) and by projecting a player's value for the rest of the season.

VORP was calculated by determining how many additional (or fewer) points per week a player scored compared to the best bench player at his position in 10-team leagues (No. 11 quarterback and tight end; No. 26 running back and wide receiver, taking the flex into account). Games missed due to injury or suspension count against a player's VORP.

Any player not listed has a trade value of 1. Remember, this is only a guide—your team needs and areas of strength should always determine any potential trades.

 

Quarterbacks

Week 8 Trade Value for Quarterbacks
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
11Peyton ManningDenver Broncos11.730
102Drew BreesNew Orleans Saints5.825
163Aaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers4.623
324Matt StaffordDetroit Lions3.518
375Cam NewtonCarolina Panthers1.816
386Matt RyanAtlanta Falcons3.816
397Tony RomoDallas Cowboys2.216
408Philip RiversSan Diego Chargers3.216
419Andrew LuckIndianapolis Colts2.116
4610Robert Griffin IIIWashington1.414
6211Russell WilsonSeattle Seahawks09
6312Michael VickPhiladelphia Eagles-1.99
7013Colin KaepernickSan Francisco 49ers-2.37
7114Tom BradyNew England Patriots-3.67
9715Andy DaltonCincinnati Bengals-0.62

 

Quarterback Notes

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With Jay Cutler out for the next month and Sam Bradford done for the season, Andy Dalton joins the trade value chart this week. Not surprisingly, he joins at the very bottom. 

Peyton Manning continues not only to lead all of fantasy football in points, but also to be the most valuable player at his particular position (only Jamaal Charles comes close in VORP, as you'll see). 

It's very clear this season that there is a definitive top 10 at the position, followed by the steady but unspectacular Russell Wilson, the spectacular but injury-prone Michael Vick and the hugely disappointing Tom Brady and Colin Kaepernick

And for those of you worried about Matt Ryan without Julio Jones and with Roddy White hobbled, you can ignore that concern after he posted 22 fantasy points last week. With White and Steven Jackson making their way back from injury, his value remains high.

Vick is an interesting case of how much injuries or suspensions can affect VORP. In games he's actually played, he's averaged 19.6 points, which would give him a VORP of 3.7. But take away the two games he's lost to injury, and he's averaging just 14 points per week, significantly dropping his VORP to -1.9.

Vick is always a risk to go down given his scrambling nature, and he doesn't help your team when he's hurt. But if you want a buy-low candidate, he's a very intriguing target. Here are some of the players with an equivalent VORP to Vick's 3.7 in games he's played:

  • Alfred Morris, RB, Washington
  • Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants
  • Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
  • Matt Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

And here are the types of players you would likely have to give up for Vick given his current ranking and injury history:

  • Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
  • C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills
  • Cecil Shorts, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints

See the difference? He isn't for the faint of heart and you'll be gambling that he can stay healthy, but for those that don't mind the risk, Vick is one of best players in fantasy football to target from a value perspective. 

 

Running Backs

Week 8 Trade Value for Running Backs
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
21Jamaal CharlesKansas City Chiefs11.329
32Adrian PetersonMinnesota Vikings7.928
43Matt ForteChicago Bears8.928
54Marshawn LynchSeattle Seahawks8.628
65LeSean McCoyPhiladelphia Eagles8.228
76Knowshon MorenoDenver Broncos7.827
87Frank GoreSan Francisco 49ers5.927
118Reggie BushDetroit Lions5.525
169Arian FosterHouston Texans4.822
1710Fred JacksonBuffalo Bills5.222
1811Eddie LacyGreen Bay Packers1.422
2212Alfred MorrisWashington3.520
2313DeMarco MurrayDallas Cowboys3.320
3414Ray RiceBaltimore Ravens-0.717
3515Chris JohnsonTennessee Titans2.117
3616Stevan RidleyNew England Patriots0.217
4817Giovani BernardCincinnati Bengals2.313
4918DeAngelo WilliamsCarolina Panthers1.413
5019Darren McFaddenOakland Raiders0.413
5120Darren SprolesNew Orleans Saints1.913
6621C.J. SpillerBuffalo Bills-1.18
6722Steven JacksonAtlanta Falcons-4.08
6823Le'Veon BellPittsburgh Steelers-1.38
7224Danny WoodheadSan Diego Chargers1.96
7325Ryan MathewsSan Diego Chargers1.56
7426Trent RichardsonIndianapolis Colts-0.26
8327Doug MartinTampa Bay Buccaneers1.74
8428Maurice Jones-DrewJacksonville Jaguars-0.54
8529Zac StacySt. Louis Rams-2.74
9330Lamar MillerMiami Dolphins-1.02
9431Roy HeluWashington1.02
9832Rashard MendenhallArizona Cardinals-0.22
9933Bilal PowellNew York Jets0.22

 

Running Back Notes

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At this point in the fantasy season, I think there are only seven players (Charles, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno and Frank Gore) that are truly elite options at the running back position. After that, every back comes with some question marks. 

Unless you have insane depth at the position, you probably shouldn't be trading away one of those seven players in a year with so many questions at the running back position.

But here's a theoretical—let's say you're a Doug Martin owner and have no depth at running back, and you aren't willing to risk waiting on the hope that he'll play again this season. You decide to target Eddie Lacy (good choice) and are putting together a package to land him. 

Here are the types of players you'll need to give up:

With Lacy, you are paying a bit for upside. Oh, and the fact that he has 37 fantasy points total in the past three weeks and the Green Bay Packers have made a consistent effort to get him touches (25 touches per game in that time). 

Arian Foster was a part of the elite grouping last week, but the uncertainty surrounding his hamstring pull—and around this Houston Texans team in general—hurts his value. Of course, Foster is maintaining he'll be good to go after the team's Week 8 bye, according to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle:

Steven Jackson is practicing this week, so that has removed Jacquizz Rodgers from the value chart. The uncertainty with Martin's torn labrum has seen him take a major plunge in value, as has Bilal Powell's limited production in the past three weeks and the fact that Chris Ivory just rushed 34 times for 104 yards against the New England Patriots.

Another great buy-low candidate is C.J. Spiller, if you can afford to weather a few low fantasy outputs until he gets healthy. Without question, his limited production is due to an ankle injury—head coach Doug Marrone said as much—and he could be a great investment if he blows up in the second half of the season. 

If you do add him, however, make sure you are in good shape at the position first. 

 

Wide Receivers

Week 8 Trade Value for Wide Receivers
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
121Calvin JohnsonDetroit Lions4.024
132A.J. GreenCincinnati Bengals5.224
143Dez BryantDallas Cowboys5.024
194Demaryius ThomasDenver Broncos4.921
205Jordy NelsonGreen Bay Packers5.821
216Vincent JacksonTampa Bay Buccaneers5.121
267Wes WelkerDenver Broncos5.019
278DeSean JacksonPhiladelphia Eagles5.019
289Victor CruzNew York Giants3.619
2910Josh GordonCleveland Browns0.419
3011Brandon MarshallChicago Bears4.219
3112Eric DeckerDenver Broncos3.319
4213Antonio BrownPittsburgh Steelers3.115
4314Denarius MooreOakland Raiders2.615
4415Torrey SmithBaltimore Ravens1.915
4516Pierre GarconWashington1.915
5217Alshon JefferyChicago Bears2.912
5318Larry FitzgeraldArizona Cardinals1.012
5419Justin BlackmonJacksonville Jaguars-1.612
5520James JonesGreen Bay Packers-0.512
5921Andre JohnsonHouston Texans010
6022Steve SmithCarolina Panthers010
6123Cecil ShortsJacksonville Jaguars010
6424Marques ColstonNew Orleans Saints-1.78
6525Roddy WhiteAtlanta Falcons-6.08
6926Harry DouglasAtlanta Falcons-1.58
7627Anquan BoldinSan Francisco 49ers0.65
7728Terrance WilliamsDallas Cowboys05
7829T.Y. HiltonIndianapolis Colts-0.45
7930Hakeem NicksNew York Giants-1.35
8031Keenan AllenSan Diego Chargers-0.65
8132Rueben RandleNew York Giants0.45
8233Percy HarvinSeattle SeahawksN/A4
8834Mike WallaceMiami Dolphins-1.03
9235Brian HartlineMiami Dolphins0.52
10036Kenbrell ThompkinsNew England Patriots02

 

Wide Receiver Notes

Owners with either Julio Jones, Reggie Wayne or Randall Cobb are probably hitting you up with trade offers if you have depth at wide receiver. Let's say you feel confident in your receiving corps, need help at other positions and are willing to trade Brandon Marshall now that Cutler is hurt (I expect his production, along with the value of Alshon Jeffery, to dip somewhat).

What types of trade packages should you be expecting to get for Marshall?

In general, there is just less value at wide receiver than other positions considering the depth and lack of elite VORP at the top of the rankings. If we were ranking players based solely on VORP this season, the highest wide receiver in those rankings, Jordy Nelson, would be tied for 11th on the list with Drew Brees.

Meanwhile, seven running backs would be in the top 10. If you were wondering why conventional wisdom warns against drafting a wide receiver in the first round—and always suggests targeting running backs early—that's your answer. 

T.Y. Hilton's value takes a bump due to Wayne's ACL tear, while Darrius Heyward-Bey may find himself on this chart if he produces after the bye. Harry Douglas' big week is proof that he should produce decent numbers in the absence of Jones, so he sees a pretty big bump in value this week. 

 

Tight Ends

Week 8 Trade Value for Tight Ends
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
91Jimmy GrahamNew Orleans Saints9.026
242Julius ThomasDenver Broncos7.120
253Rob GronkowskiNew England Patriots-4.920
334Jordan CameronCleveland Browns6.018
475Vernon DavisSan Francisco 49ers4.914
566Tony GonzalezAtlanta Falcons2.211
577Antonio GatesSan Diego Chargers1.511
588Jason WittenDallas Cowboys1.211
869Charles ClayMiami Dolphins2.23
8710Martellus BennettChicago Bears1.53
8911Greg OlsenCarolina Panthers-0.53
9012Jordan ReedWashington03
9613Heath MillerPittsburgh Steelers-2.72

 

Tight End Notes

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Even after his bye week, Jimmy Graham still has more fantasy points than every single wide receiver. That's insane. 

Rob Gronkowski's VORP looks pretty scary, but it's been affected by all the time he missed this year to injury. His eight receptions for 114 yards in his return to action were a nice reward for those owners patient enough to hold onto him. 

Julius Thomas now has eight touchdowns in seven games, but he's only had 50 or more receiving yards twice this year. If you are concerned that his touchdown production isn't sustainable, he might be a very nice sell-high option right now.

If you were to trade him—let's say you also have Antonio Gates at tight end, but are really hurting at other positions—what should you try to get in return?

I know what you are thinking. 

Tim, other guys in my league don't value top-end tight ends as highly as you do. I'll never get these types of deals for him. 

First of all, make sure you target an owner that has gotten little to no production from his or her tight ends this season. Then, make this pitch. 

Did you know that Thomas has the same number of touchdowns as Victor Cruz and Vincent Jackson combined? That he's averaging more fantasy points per week than Megatron? That only six running backs have more fantasy points than the 88 points Thomas has scored this year? That he's averaging 7.1 more fantasy points per week than the No. 11 tight end, Jordan Reed, making him extremely valuable?

Then sit back and watch offers like the ones I suggested above come rolling in. Feel free to do your best evil laugh as they do.

 

Defense/Special Teams

Week 8 Trade Value for Defense/Special Teams
RankPos. RankTeamVORPTrade Value
751Kansas City Chiefs9.66
912Seattle Seahawks4.63
953Carolina Panthers3.32

 

Defense/Special Team Notes

There are three defenses on this list, and the reason why is simple—after Carolina's VORP of 3.3, the next defense (the San Francisco 49ers) has a VORP of 1.9. After the top three defenses, there is very little differentiation between the remaining teams.

The Kansas City Chiefs remain quite valuable, though that production should slow somewhat eventually. The Seattle Seahawks remain extremely valuable given their sheer consistency, however, while the Carolina Panthers have quietly been one of the best defenses in all of fantasy

 

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy lineup questions and offer trade advice to pair with this chart. I can't see into the future, but if I ever stumble upon a phone booth that can travel through time, I'll use it to ensure that my fantasy team, Wyld Stallyns, is the best in history.

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