Fantasy Football Week 8: Updated Trade Value for Top 100 Players

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Fantasy Football Week 8: Updated Trade Value for Top 100 Players
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We've all seen it.

A nervous guy or gal makes a few too many corny jokes on a first date. A prospective employee spends way too much time listing off accomplishments in a job interview rather than answering the questions presented to him or her. Owners of monster trucks.

Sometimes we all overcompensate.

But you should never, ever overcompensate when making a fantasy football trade unless it is absolutely necessary. You never want to come out of a trade weaker overall because you overpaid to improve one position of need. 

That's where I come in. With my handy trade-value chart, you'll never overcompensate or get ripped off in a trade again. Because nobody wants to see you become your league's version of a monster-truck owner every time you make a deal.

 

Notes: The top 100 players were determined by using the current ESPN standard-scoring league rankings, calculating each player's "value over replacement player" (VORP for short) and by projecting a player's value for the rest of the season.

VORP was calculated by determining how many additional (or fewer) points per week a player scored compared to the best bench player at his position in 10-team leagues (No. 11 quarterback and tight end; No. 26 running back and wide receiver, taking the flex into account). Games missed due to injury or suspension count against a player's VORP.

Any player not listed has a trade value of 1. Remember, this is only a guide—your team needs and areas of strength should always determine any potential trades.

 

Quarterbacks

Week 8 Trade Value for Quarterbacks
Rank Pos. Rank Player Team VORP Trade Value
1 1 Peyton Manning Denver Broncos 11.7 30
10 2 Drew Brees New Orleans Saints 5.8 25
16 3 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers 4.6 23
32 4 Matt Stafford Detroit Lions 3.5 18
37 5 Cam Newton Carolina Panthers 1.8 16
38 6 Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons 3.8 16
39 7 Tony Romo Dallas Cowboys 2.2 16
40 8 Philip Rivers San Diego Chargers 3.2 16
41 9 Andrew Luck Indianapolis Colts 2.1 16
46 10 Robert Griffin III Washington 1.4 14
62 11 Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks 0 9
63 12 Michael Vick Philadelphia Eagles -1.9 9
70 13 Colin Kaepernick San Francisco 49ers -2.3 7
71 14 Tom Brady New England Patriots -3.6 7
97 15 Andy Dalton Cincinnati Bengals -0.6 2

 

Quarterback Notes

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With Jay Cutler out for the next month and Sam Bradford done for the season, Andy Dalton joins the trade value chart this week. Not surprisingly, he joins at the very bottom. 

Peyton Manning continues not only to lead all of fantasy football in points, but also to be the most valuable player at his particular position (only Jamaal Charles comes close in VORP, as you'll see). 

It's very clear this season that there is a definitive top 10 at the position, followed by the steady but unspectacular Russell Wilson, the spectacular but injury-prone Michael Vick and the hugely disappointing Tom Brady and Colin Kaepernick

And for those of you worried about Matt Ryan without Julio Jones and with Roddy White hobbled, you can ignore that concern after he posted 22 fantasy points last week. With White and Steven Jackson making their way back from injury, his value remains high.

Vick is an interesting case of how much injuries or suspensions can affect VORP. In games he's actually played, he's averaged 19.6 points, which would give him a VORP of 3.7. But take away the two games he's lost to injury, and he's averaging just 14 points per week, significantly dropping his VORP to -1.9.

Vick is always a risk to go down given his scrambling nature, and he doesn't help your team when he's hurt. But if you want a buy-low candidate, he's a very intriguing target. Here are some of the players with an equivalent VORP to Vick's 3.7 in games he's played:

  • Alfred Morris, RB, Washington
  • Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants
  • Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
  • Matt Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

And here are the types of players you would likely have to give up for Vick given his current ranking and injury history:

  • Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
  • C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills
  • Cecil Shorts, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints

See the difference? He isn't for the faint of heart and you'll be gambling that he can stay healthy, but for those that don't mind the risk, Vick is one of best players in fantasy football to target from a value perspective. 

 

Running Backs

Week 8 Trade Value for Running Backs
Rank Pos. Rank Player Team VORP Trade Value
2 1 Jamaal Charles Kansas City Chiefs 11.3 29
3 2 Adrian Peterson Minnesota Vikings 7.9 28
4 3 Matt Forte Chicago Bears 8.9 28
5 4 Marshawn Lynch Seattle Seahawks 8.6 28
6 5 LeSean McCoy Philadelphia Eagles 8.2 28
7 6 Knowshon Moreno Denver Broncos 7.8 27
8 7 Frank Gore San Francisco 49ers 5.9 27
11 8 Reggie Bush Detroit Lions 5.5 25
16 9 Arian Foster Houston Texans 4.8 22
17 10 Fred Jackson Buffalo Bills 5.2 22
18 11 Eddie Lacy Green Bay Packers 1.4 22
22 12 Alfred Morris Washington 3.5 20
23 13 DeMarco Murray Dallas Cowboys 3.3 20
34 14 Ray Rice Baltimore Ravens -0.7 17
35 15 Chris Johnson Tennessee Titans 2.1 17
36 16 Stevan Ridley New England Patriots 0.2 17
48 17 Giovani Bernard Cincinnati Bengals 2.3 13
49 18 DeAngelo Williams Carolina Panthers 1.4 13
50 19 Darren McFadden Oakland Raiders 0.4 13
51 20 Darren Sproles New Orleans Saints 1.9 13
66 21 C.J. Spiller Buffalo Bills -1.1 8
67 22 Steven Jackson Atlanta Falcons -4.0 8
68 23 Le'Veon Bell Pittsburgh Steelers -1.3 8
72 24 Danny Woodhead San Diego Chargers 1.9 6
73 25 Ryan Mathews San Diego Chargers 1.5 6
74 26 Trent Richardson Indianapolis Colts -0.2 6
83 27 Doug Martin Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.7 4
84 28 Maurice Jones-Drew Jacksonville Jaguars -0.5 4
85 29 Zac Stacy St. Louis Rams -2.7 4
93 30 Lamar Miller Miami Dolphins -1.0 2
94 31 Roy Helu Washington 1.0 2
98 32 Rashard Mendenhall Arizona Cardinals -0.2 2
99 33 Bilal Powell New York Jets 0.2 2

 

Running Back Notes

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At this point in the fantasy season, I think there are only seven players (Charles, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno and Frank Gore) that are truly elite options at the running back position. After that, every back comes with some question marks. 

Unless you have insane depth at the position, you probably shouldn't be trading away one of those seven players in a year with so many questions at the running back position.

But here's a theoretical—let's say you're a Doug Martin owner and have no depth at running back, and you aren't willing to risk waiting on the hope that he'll play again this season. You decide to target Eddie Lacy (good choice) and are putting together a package to land him. 

Here are the types of players you'll need to give up:

With Lacy, you are paying a bit for upside. Oh, and the fact that he has 37 fantasy points total in the past three weeks and the Green Bay Packers have made a consistent effort to get him touches (25 touches per game in that time). 

Arian Foster was a part of the elite grouping last week, but the uncertainty surrounding his hamstring pull—and around this Houston Texans team in general—hurts his value. Of course, Foster is maintaining he'll be good to go after the team's Week 8 bye, according to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle:

Steven Jackson is practicing this week, so that has removed Jacquizz Rodgers from the value chart. The uncertainty with Martin's torn labrum has seen him take a major plunge in value, as has Bilal Powell's limited production in the past three weeks and the fact that Chris Ivory just rushed 34 times for 104 yards against the New England Patriots.

Another great buy-low candidate is C.J. Spiller, if you can afford to weather a few low fantasy outputs until he gets healthy. Without question, his limited production is due to an ankle injury—head coach Doug Marrone said as much—and he could be a great investment if he blows up in the second half of the season. 

If you do add him, however, make sure you are in good shape at the position first. 

 

Wide Receivers

Week 8 Trade Value for Wide Receivers
Rank Pos. Rank Player Team VORP Trade Value
12 1 Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions 4.0 24
13 2 A.J. Green Cincinnati Bengals 5.2 24
14 3 Dez Bryant Dallas Cowboys 5.0 24
19 4 Demaryius Thomas Denver Broncos 4.9 21
20 5 Jordy Nelson Green Bay Packers 5.8 21
21 6 Vincent Jackson Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5.1 21
26 7 Wes Welker Denver Broncos 5.0 19
27 8 DeSean Jackson Philadelphia Eagles 5.0 19
28 9 Victor Cruz New York Giants 3.6 19
29 10 Josh Gordon Cleveland Browns 0.4 19
30 11 Brandon Marshall Chicago Bears 4.2 19
31 12 Eric Decker Denver Broncos 3.3 19
42 13 Antonio Brown Pittsburgh Steelers 3.1 15
43 14 Denarius Moore Oakland Raiders 2.6 15
44 15 Torrey Smith Baltimore Ravens 1.9 15
45 16 Pierre Garcon Washington 1.9 15
52 17 Alshon Jeffery Chicago Bears 2.9 12
53 18 Larry Fitzgerald Arizona Cardinals 1.0 12
54 19 Justin Blackmon Jacksonville Jaguars -1.6 12
55 20 James Jones Green Bay Packers -0.5 12
59 21 Andre Johnson Houston Texans 0 10
60 22 Steve Smith Carolina Panthers 0 10
61 23 Cecil Shorts Jacksonville Jaguars 0 10
64 24 Marques Colston New Orleans Saints -1.7 8
65 25 Roddy White Atlanta Falcons -6.0 8
69 26 Harry Douglas Atlanta Falcons -1.5 8
76 27 Anquan Boldin San Francisco 49ers 0.6 5
77 28 Terrance Williams Dallas Cowboys 0 5
78 29 T.Y. Hilton Indianapolis Colts -0.4 5
79 30 Hakeem Nicks New York Giants -1.3 5
80 31 Keenan Allen San Diego Chargers -0.6 5
81 32 Rueben Randle New York Giants 0.4 5
82 33 Percy Harvin Seattle Seahawks N/A 4
88 34 Mike Wallace Miami Dolphins -1.0 3
92 35 Brian Hartline Miami Dolphins 0.5 2
100 36 Kenbrell Thompkins New England Patriots 0 2

 

Wide Receiver Notes

Chicago may be just fine with Josh McCown, but Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery's value will likely take a slight hit.

Owners with either Julio Jones, Reggie Wayne or Randall Cobb are probably hitting you up with trade offers if you have depth at wide receiver. Let's say you feel confident in your receiving corps, need help at other positions and are willing to trade Brandon Marshall now that Cutler is hurt (I expect his production, along with the value of Alshon Jeffery, to dip somewhat).

What types of trade packages should you be expecting to get for Marshall?

In general, there is just less value at wide receiver than other positions considering the depth and lack of elite VORP at the top of the rankings. If we were ranking players based solely on VORP this season, the highest wide receiver in those rankings, Jordy Nelson, would be tied for 11th on the list with Drew Brees.

Meanwhile, seven running backs would be in the top 10. If you were wondering why conventional wisdom warns against drafting a wide receiver in the first round—and always suggests targeting running backs early—that's your answer. 

T.Y. Hilton's value takes a bump due to Wayne's ACL tear, while Darrius Heyward-Bey may find himself on this chart if he produces after the bye. Harry Douglas' big week is proof that he should produce decent numbers in the absence of Jones, so he sees a pretty big bump in value this week. 

 

Tight Ends

Week 8 Trade Value for Tight Ends
Rank Pos. Rank Player Team VORP Trade Value
9 1 Jimmy Graham New Orleans Saints 9.0 26
24 2 Julius Thomas Denver Broncos 7.1 20
25 3 Rob Gronkowski New England Patriots -4.9 20
33 4 Jordan Cameron Cleveland Browns 6.0 18
47 5 Vernon Davis San Francisco 49ers 4.9 14
56 6 Tony Gonzalez Atlanta Falcons 2.2 11
57 7 Antonio Gates San Diego Chargers 1.5 11
58 8 Jason Witten Dallas Cowboys 1.2 11
86 9 Charles Clay Miami Dolphins 2.2 3
87 10 Martellus Bennett Chicago Bears 1.5 3
89 11 Greg Olsen Carolina Panthers -0.5 3
90 12 Jordan Reed Washington 0 3
96 13 Heath Miller Pittsburgh Steelers -2.7 2

 

Tight End Notes

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Even after his bye week, Jimmy Graham still has more fantasy points than every single wide receiver. That's insane. 

Rob Gronkowski's VORP looks pretty scary, but it's been affected by all the time he missed this year to injury. His eight receptions for 114 yards in his return to action were a nice reward for those owners patient enough to hold onto him. 

Julius Thomas now has eight touchdowns in seven games, but he's only had 50 or more receiving yards twice this year. If you are concerned that his touchdown production isn't sustainable, he might be a very nice sell-high option right now.

If you were to trade him—let's say you also have Antonio Gates at tight end, but are really hurting at other positions—what should you try to get in return?

I know what you are thinking. 

Tim, other guys in my league don't value top-end tight ends as highly as you do. I'll never get these types of deals for him. 

First of all, make sure you target an owner that has gotten little to no production from his or her tight ends this season. Then, make this pitch. 

Did you know that Thomas has the same number of touchdowns as Victor Cruz and Vincent Jackson combined? That he's averaging more fantasy points per week than Megatron? That only six running backs have more fantasy points than the 88 points Thomas has scored this year? That he's averaging 7.1 more fantasy points per week than the No. 11 tight end, Jordan Reed, making him extremely valuable?

Then sit back and watch offers like the ones I suggested above come rolling in. Feel free to do your best evil laugh as they do.

 

Defense/Special Teams

Week 8 Trade Value for Defense/Special Teams
Rank Pos. Rank Team VORP Trade Value
75 1 Kansas City Chiefs 9.6 6
91 2 Seattle Seahawks 4.6 3
95 3 Carolina Panthers 3.3 2

 

Defense/Special Team Notes

There are three defenses on this list, and the reason why is simple—after Carolina's VORP of 3.3, the next defense (the San Francisco 49ers) has a VORP of 1.9. After the top three defenses, there is very little differentiation between the remaining teams.

The Kansas City Chiefs remain quite valuable, though that production should slow somewhat eventually. The Seattle Seahawks remain extremely valuable given their sheer consistency, however, while the Carolina Panthers have quietly been one of the best defenses in all of fantasy

 

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy lineup questions and offer trade advice to pair with this chart. I can't see into the future, but if I ever stumble upon a phone booth that can travel through time, I'll use it to ensure that my fantasy team, Wyld Stallyns, is the best in history.

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