College Football Picks: NC State at Florida State Odds and Predictions

Doc MosemanCorrespondent IOctober 21, 2013

CLEMSON, SC - OCTOBER 19:  Jameis Winston #5 of the Florida State Seminoles celebrates after defeating the Clemson Tigers 51-14 at Memorial Stadium on October 19, 2013 in Clemson, South Carolina.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

The unranked North Carolina State Wolfpack will try and take down the No. 2 Florida State Seminoles as prohibitive road underdogs this Saturday afternoon at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.

Kickoff for this ACC clash is set for 3:30 p.m. (ET), and the game will be broadcast nationally on ABC.

The Wolfpack come into this game with an overall record of 3-3 both straight up and against the spread, but they have just one straight up win in their last four games. They will be coming off a bye after falling to Syracuse 24-10 on Oct. 12 as 6.5-point home favorites.

The total stayed “under” the 52.5-point line, and it has stayed under in five of the first six games.

Florida State debuted at No. 2 in the initial BCS rankings for the season after dismantling then-No. 3 Clemson 51-14 this past Saturday night as a five-point road favorite.

The Seminoles are now 6-0 SU and a very profitable 5-1 ATS. The total went well “over” the 63-point line against the Tigers, and it has gone over in all six games.


NC State at Florida State Betting Storylines

NC State has shown some solid balance on offense this season between the pass and the run, but that has not always translated to points on the board.

It is ranked 90th in the nation in scoring with an average of 24.7 points a game. In its last three losses, this unit has only managed to score a combined total of 37 points.

The player to watch on this side of the ball is Pete Thomas. He has thrown for 1,314 yards and three touchdowns while adding another 184 yards and two scores on the ground.

The Wolfpack’s bend-but-don’t-break defense is ranked 27th in the nation in points allowed.

They held Clemson to 26 points earlier in the season and have not given up more than 28 points in a game all season long. This could be NC State’s only hope to try and keep this game close against their Atlantic Division rival.

The Seminoles come into this matchup flying high after putting themselves in prime position for a berth in the BCS title game. The key will be to avoid looking past a game like this in anticipation of next Saturday’s showdown against No. 7 Miami.

All indications are that they will continue to roll after blowing out the first six teams they faced. The tightest margin of victory so far this season was 14 points against Boston College as 23.5-point road favorites.

Florida State could be the most complete team in college football with a high-powered offense that is averaging 53.2 points a game, complementing a defense that is holding teams to just 12.3 points a contest.

Freshman quarterback Jameis Winston has thrust himself into the Heisman Trophy picture with 1,885 yards passing and 20 touchdown throws while completing 71.3 percent of his 157 attempts.


NC State at Florida State Betting Odds and Trends by 5Dimes

Point Spread: Florida State -29

Total Line: OFF

The Wolfpack are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss but just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine road games. The total was under in their last four conference games.

The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win and 4-0 ATS in their last four games at home. The total has gone over in seven of their last nine home games.

Head-to-head in this ACC matchup, the underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings, and the total has stayed under in five of the last six games. Last season NC State stunned Florida State 17-16 as a 17-point home underdog. They are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.


College Football Picks: NC State at Florida State Betting Predictions

Common sense might dictate that the Seminoles should cover this spread with ease, but past trends in this matchup tell me otherwise.

Florida State can say they will be able to put last week’s huge victory behind them and keep next week’s clash against one of their most bitter rivals on the back burner to play this game, but I am not buying. NC State will still get their doors blown off but not by more than 29 points.

Take: # 161 North Carolina State (+ 29) over Florida State (3:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 26)