Projected BCS Rankings 2013-14: Latest Predictions by Web Experts

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Projected BCS Rankings 2013-14: Latest Predictions by Web Experts
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Mere hours before the release of the 2013 BCS rankings, upsets were abundant throughout the college football landscape. Five of the Top 10 teams in the AP Poll and six of the Top 10 squads in the USA Today Coaches' Poll lost, and the postseason picture was altered in a major way.

The question is: What will the BCS rankings look like now that some of the most heavily favored teams in the nation have fallen?

The No. 3 Clemson Tigers, No. 6 LSU Tigers, No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies, No. 8 Louisville Cardinals, No. 9 UCLA Bruins, No. 11 South Carolina Gamecocks, No. 15 Georgia Bulldogs, No. 20 Washington Huskies and No. 22 Florida Gators all fell on Saturday. Each squad had some form of title dreams, and most were dashed with shocking losses.   

With a high number of ranked teams losing, the soon-to-be-released BCS rankings will look nothing like the previous AP and USA Today polls. Or so we think.

Multiple experts have weighed in on what could be, including BCS Guru Samuel Chi of Bleacher Report and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports. It's difficult to make a precise projection for the most heavily scrutinized computer system in professional sports, but both men have put together some compelling lists.

Here's how the experts believe it will shape up:

Samuel Chi's Projected BCS Rankings
Rank Team Coaches Poll Harris Poll Computers Pvs
1 Alabama 1 1 2 1
2 Florida State 3 3 1 4
3 Oregon 2 2 3 2
4 Ohio State 4 4 8 5
5 Missouri 7 7 4 13
6 Baylor 5 5 6 10
7 Stanford 6 6 5 11
8 Clemson 9 8 7 3
9 Miami (Fla.) 8 9 10 14
10 UCLA 11 10 9 8
11 LSU 12 12 11 6
12 Texas A&M 10 11 13 7
13 Texas Tech 13 13 19 16
14 South Carolina 14 14 18 12
15 Oklahoma 17 16 15 17
16 Auburn 22 19 12 23
17 Virginia Tech 19 20 16 18
18 Northern Illinois 21 21 17 22
19 Louisville 15 15 25 9
20 Fresno State 18 17 23 19

http://www.bcsguru.com/

 

Jerry Palm's Projected BCS Rankings
BCS RANK TEAM BCS AVG HARRIS VOTES HARRIS PCT COACHES VOTES COACHES PCT
1 Alabama 0.9842 2589 0.9958 1545 0.9968
2 Florida State 0.9336 2428 0.9338 1406 0.9071
3 Oregon 0.9333 2501 0.9619 1485 0.9581
4 Ohio State 0.8497 2280 0.8769 1352 0.8723
5 Missouri 0.8114 2041 0.785 1089 0.7026
6 Baylor 0.7514 2172 0.8354 1269 0.8187
7 Stanford 0.7441 1930 0.7423 1152 0.7432
8 Miami (Fla.) 0.7359 2145 0.825 1234 0.7961
9 Clemson 0.6695 1550 0.5962 1011 0.6523
10 Texas Tech 0.5931 1760 0.6769 882 0.569
11 Auburn 0.4941 750 0.2885 817 0.5271
12 LSU 0.4893 1454 0.5592 685 0.4419
13 UCLA 0.4874 1259 0.4842 586 0.3781
14 Oklahoma 0.4695 1185 0.4558 836 0.5394
15 Texas A&M 0.4224 1459 0.5612 743 0.4794
16 Virginia Tech 0.372 814 0.3131 356 0.2297
17 South Carolina 0.3373 1051 0.4042 611 0.3942
18 Fresno State 0.3116 901 0.3465 478 0.3084
19 Oklahoma State 0.2924 860 0.3308 847 0.5465
20 Northern Illinois 0.2617 401 0.1542 234 0.151
21 Louisville 0.2556 1046 0.3985 571 0.3684
22 Michigan 0.177 415 0.1581 268 0.1729
23 UCF 0.1383 238 0.0907 151 0.0974
24 Nebraska 0.1354 414 0.1577 385 0.2484
25 Oregon State 0.0942 168 0.064 91 0.0587

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs

 

Rising

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

In both Chi's and Palm's respective rankings, the team that saw the most significant rise was the Missouri Tigers. Previously ranked No. 14 in the AP and USA Today polls, both Chi and Palm have the Tigers at No. 5 in their projected BCS rankings.

Two consecutive blowouts of Top 25 SEC opponents will do that.

Missouri toppled then-No. 7 Georgia 41-26 in Athens on Oct. 12 and followed the win with a 36-17 victory over then-No. 22 Florida on Oct. 19. It won't get any easier with South Carolina up next, but Missouri is one of two remaining undefeated SEC programs.

The other is the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide.

The other teams that made significant jumps are the Florida State Seminoles and Baylor Bears. Baylor is ranked No. 6 in both Chi and Palm's projected rankings, which comes just one week after it was No. 12 in both the AP and USA Today polls.

Florida State dominated then-No. 3 Clemson, using an explosive offense and smothering defense to win 51-14. That victory has both Palm and Chi convinced that the Seminoles will be ranked No. 2 in the BCS rankings.

Everything changed during Week 8, and no teams benefited more than Baylor, Florida State and Missouri.

 

Falling

Frederick Breedon/Getty Images

As previously alluded to, numerous Top 25 teams from the AP, coaches and projected BCS rankings lost. This opened the door for programs to see significant rises in the rankings, but it also led to squads hitting a steep decline.

No team fell as hard as Georgia.  

The leniency that the rankings had with the Bulldogs was a representation of voters favoring the SEC—sometimes blindly. Despite going 4-2 in its first six games, Georgia was ranked No. 15 in the AP and No. 16 in the coaches poll.

Georgia proceeded to lose to Vanderbilt and is now on the outside looking into both Chi and Palm's Top 20 BCS rankings.

The other notable declining contender is Louisville, which lost to UCF on Oct. 18. Playing a schedule that's void of ranked opponents, Louisville eliminated any slim chance that it had at reaching the BCS National Championship Game.

All in all, it was a bad day for the favorites and a huge one for the hopefuls.

 

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