Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction ColumnistOctober 16, 2013

BALTIMORE, MD - OCTOBER 13: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers looks on during warm ups before playing the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on October 13, 2013 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Patrick Smith/Getty Images

It's always a tough task in the NFL to cover a double-digit spread as a favorite, but Green Bay is 9-2 ATS over the last 11 times it's been favored by 10 points or more at home. This week, the Packers are at Lambeau Field to host 3-3 Cleveland, losers of 15 of their past 16 road games.

Point spread: Packers opened as 11-point favorites; the total was 45.5. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction:
25.2-19.9 Packers

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland has lost three games this season, but held leads in two of those losses well into the second half. The Brownies still aren't doing a whole lot on offense, but their defense ranks seventh overall and eighth against the run. And they're catching Green Bay at about as good a time as they could, as the Packers are forced to deal with a banged-up receiving corps and defense.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay, believe it or not, has found itself a running game. The Packers ran for 139 yards in a victory over Washington, 182 in a loss at Cincy, 180 in a win over Detroit and, last week, 140 in a victory at Baltimore. Green Bay ranks second in offense and fifth in rushing, and a good part of what the defense has allowed has come in prevent mode.

And while GB is 3-2 ATS on the season, it could easily be 5-0. They have a knack for covering big home spreads (9-2 ATS past 11 as double-digit chalk), according to the NFL database.

Smart Pick

The OddsShark NFL computer is calling for a Green Bay victory, but a Cleveland cover. The Browns are improved, no doubt, as their defense has come alive. But right now the Packers are a load to stop. QB Aaron Rodgers is one of the best off the play-action, and he used it beautifully for a long scoring pass to Jordy Nelson against Baltimore.

Eleven points might seems like a lot, but the Packers, despite the injuries, should take care of business.


Browns 1-15 SU past 16 as road dog (won their last game)

Packers 9-2 ATS past 11 as double-digit home chalk

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.