Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction ColumnistOctober 16, 2013

BALTIMORE, MD - DECEMBER 02:  Running back Jonathan Dwyer #27 of the Pittsburgh Steelers rushes for a touchdown as  quarterback Charlie Batch #16 moves in to block cornerback Cary Williams #29 of the Baltimore Ravens during the third quarter of the Steelers 23-20 win at M&T Bank Stadium on December 2, 2012 in Baltimore, Maryland.  (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Rob Carr/Getty Images

Somewhat surprisingly, seven of the last 10 Ravens-Steelers punch-fests in Pittsburgh have played OVER on the totals. These AFC North rivals renew acquaintances this week at Heinz Field with a very tight point spread and even wagering as of Wednesday.


Point spread: Ravens opened as one-point favorites; the total was 40 (line updates and matchup report).

Computer Prediction: 20.3-14.4, Ravens


Why the Ravens can cover the spread

After opening the season with that loss to the Broncos, Baltimore has won three of its last five games, and the two losses came by a total of five points. The Ravens went through a lot of offseason changes, so there's an adjustment period going on. Eventually, things should work out.

Also, while Pittsburgh held the upper hand in this series over several recent seasons, including a couple of playoff victories, Baltimore has taken three of the last four meetings.


Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Did Pittsburgh find some mojo in its win last Sunday over the Jets? The Steelers had been in the dumps the first month of the season, but head coach Mike Tomlin banned games in the clubhouse and, voila, they won a game on the field. The Pittsburgh defense ranks sixth in the league overall and fourth against the pass, and it just held New York to 267 total yards.

The UNDER has been a solid bet in this situation, as the Steelers are 10-1 in their past 11 games as favorites.


Smart Pick

OddsShark's NFL computer is predicting the Ravens to win by about a touchdown in a low-scoring affair. These teams have slugged it out in some tough, close games over recent seasons, which is why the underdog is 5-2-2 against the spread over the last nine meetings. Sunday should be more of the same. Take the Ravens and as many points as you can find.



- Ravens OVER is 7-2-1 past 10 trips to Pittsburgh.

- UNDER is 10-1 past 11 Steelers games as favorites.


Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.