Florida vs. Missouri Football: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
The public has been putting more money behind the Florida Gators as they visit Missouri Saturday. A poor record as a home underdog and the fact that James Franklin is out makes this a tough sell for Tiger bettors.
Point spread: Florida opened as 1.5-point road favorites but was -3.5 by midweek; the total was 40. (Line updates and Matchup report)
Computer Prediction: 30-22 Missouri
Why Florida can cover the spread
Despite them coming in off a 17-6 loss to LSU, the Gators' red-zone attack has been improving, as they've scored 11 of 13 times inside the 20 over their last four games after starting the year 4-of-12 (TDs) and 6-of-12 (scoring) in their first two games. Carrying over that momentum on the road will be huge and the Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in eight recent games as a home dog.
Why Missouri can cover the spread
Yes, quarterback James Franklin is out. But even though the Tigers will be without their most indispensable player, here comes highly regarded redshirt freshman Maty Mauk, who broke national records for yards passing (18,932), touchdown passes (219), completions (1,353) and total offense (22,681).
The Tigers are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games, so they have been covering at will and they even covered a bigger spread last year vs. the Gators.
This would have been the perfect game to celebrate with the home crowd, one week after gaining the nation's attention with an upset win over Georgia on the road. But with Franklin out three to five weeks, it's hard to see the Tigers being able to hang with the Gators, even in Columbia.
Florida 18-2 SU as road favorite since 2006
Missouri 9-2 ATS past 11 games overall
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