There are not many sure things when it comes to the NFL, and even fewer when it comes to betting. However, a few Week 7 games are near locks for the favorites.
Whether there is a great matchup or the oddsmakers severely misjudged one of the squads in a game, a few contests are easier to pick than usual.
It might still be a smart idea to avoid toss-ups featuring two good (Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals) or bad (Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants) teams. However, you should feel confident picking one or all of these games.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-6.5) over Houston Texans
The 6-0 Chiefs continue to surprise the NFL after winning only two games last year, but this team is for real. The key is the defense, which does an excellent job of shutting down the pass.
Through six games, Kansas City leads the league in sacks with 31—nine more than the next team on the list. This has led to 10 forced interceptions and a league-low opposing quarterback rating of 59.8.
Whether Matt Schaub or T.J. Yates starts at quarterback for the Texans, they will have trouble against this Kansas City defense. The pair has combined to throw an interception returned for a touchdown in five straight games and things only appear to be getting worse.
As long as Alex Smith can avoid mistakes and get the ball to Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs will be able to easily win against this reeling team.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) over Dallas Cowboys
This line has dramatically shifted due to the major injuries suffered by the Cowboys, and for good reason. ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon reports that both DeMarco Murray and DeMarcus Ware are injured and unlikely to play in the upcoming game.
With Murray out, more pressure will be on Tony Romo to carry the offense with the passing attack. This often leads to mistakes.
However, the bigger issue will be Ware's absence from the defense. While other players have been productive on the defensive line, everyone benefited from the attention that Ware drew from offenses. Dallas will struggle to get a pass rush, which will give Philadelphia plenty of time to beat the poor secondary.
Nick Foles proved last week that he is capable as a starter if needed, and he should be able to excel against this defense. Of course, Michael Vick would do just as well if he is healthy enough to start.
Either way, the Eagles should be able to earn a win in this divisional matchup.
San Francisco 49ers (-4) over TENNESSEE TITANS
Injuries are an issue once again, as Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com reports that Jake Locker is unlikely to play in Week 7. This leaves Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starter, and he has four touchdowns to only one interception in his two starts this season.
To make matters worse, the Titans still have not found a way to get the running game started, with Chris Johnson only averaging 3.1 yards per carry. When you can't run or pass, it makes it very difficult to score points.
The good news is that the defense has actually been playing extremely well this season—especially against the pass. Unfortunately, this does not make for a good matchup against the run-heavy 49ers.
San Francisco runs the ball almost as much as anyone in the league, ranking fourth in yards per game on the ground. This should continue against a Titans defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry this year.
Even on the road, the 49ers should extend their recent three-game winning streak as they continue to contend in the NFC.
|Away Team||Home Team||Spread||Pick|
|Seattle Seahawks||Arizona Cardinals||SEA -6.5||Seahawks|
|New England Patriots||New York Jets||NE -4||Patriots|
|San Diego Chargers||Jacksonville Jaguars||SD -7.5||Chargers|
|Houston Texans||Kansas City Chiefs||KC -6.5||Chiefs|
|Cincinnati Bengals||Detroit Lions||DET -3||Bengals|
|Buffalo Bills||Miami Dolphins||MIA -8||Bills|
|Chicago Bears||Washington Redskins||WAS -1||Bears|
|Dallas Cowboys||Philadelphia Eagles||PHI -3||Eagles|
|St. Louis Rams||Carolina Panthers||CAR -6||Panthers|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Atlanta Falcons||ATL -7||Buccaneers|
|San Francisco 49ers||Tennessee Titans||SF -4||49ers|
|Cleveland Browns||Green Bay Packers||GB -10||Packers|
|Baltimore Ravens||Pittsburgh Steelers||PIT -1.5||Ravens|
|Denver Broncos||Indianapolis Colts||DEN -6.5||Broncos|
|Minnesota Vikings||New York Giants||NYG -3||Giants|
Spreads via Vegas Insider
All lines courtesy of Vegas Insider. Home team in caps.
Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for the latest breaking news and analysis.