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Arkansas vs. Alabama Football: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

FAYETTEVILLE, AR - SEPTEMBER 15:    Eddie Lacy #42 of the Alabama Crimson Tide runs the ball against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Razorback Stadium on September 15, 2012 in Fayetteville, Arkansas.  The Crimson Tide defeated the Razorbacks 52-0.  (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistOctober 15, 2013

Alabama is not a good place to visit when you are hoping to break a 1-10 ATS road streak, but that’s the situation facing Arkansas in SEC betting action this week. The computer picked the Tide by 27, the spread opened at 28.

 

Point spread: Alabama opened as 28-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 43-16 Alabama (from OddsShark.com college picks computer)

 

Why Arkansas can cover the spread

The Razorbacks are the nation's only team that plays preseason Top 10 opponents in four consecutive weeks. Arkansas faced Texas A&M in Fayetteville on Sept. 28, traveled to Florida on Oct. 5, returned to Fayetteville to host South Carolina last week and now this.

Battle-tested is one way to look at it. They could sneak a cover here as Bama is just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 at home.

 

Why Alabama can cover the spread

Coach Nick Saban wasn't too quick to praise the Crimson Tide via the media while doling out midseason grades. Though Bama is ranked No. 1 and 6-0, Saban pointed out the inefficiencies. His players are going to be out to prove him wrong and play nearly perfect in this game.

They face a Razorback team that is 1-10 ATS in 11 road games.

 

Smart Pick

This is the start of a three-game homestand for the Tide, which is in after a 48-7 blowout of Kentucky. The two-time defending national champs haven't allowed more than seven points since their shootout win over Texas A&M more than four weeks ago. Alabama's defense is too strong. Tide by at least 30.

 

Trends:

Arkansas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games on the road.

Alabama is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home.

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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