Chile blew a golden opportunity to automatically qualify for the 2014 World Cup in their last match. Leading 3-0 over Colombia this past weekend, Chile inexcusably gave up three second-half goals for a crushing 3-3 draw.
Chile hosts Ecuador on Tuesday, and both teams can advance to Brazil with a win or draw in the final match of CONMEBOL qualifying. Both have 25 points, but Ecuador stands third with a two-goal advantage in goal differential. If fifth-place Uruguay plays to a home draw or loses against first-place Argentina, both Chile and Ecuador will automatically advance with a top-four place.
The betting favorite in this match at most online sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark.com is actually the draw at -150, with Chile at +140 and Ecuador at +900. This is not a huge surprise as a draw serves both sides and oddsmakers can expect both to play cautiously and defensively.
In World Cup qualifying, Chile’s offense had struggled against the top teams until it scored three goals in the Colombia match. Their defense is the issue. In the top six teams in South American qualifying, it has conceded the most goals.
While Chile’s defense is suspect, Ecuador has given up the second-fewest goals in qualifying. Their offense has struggled as of late, as in their last five qualifying matches it has scored three goals.
They did beat Chile 3-1 at home, but on the road they only have three points with three draws and four losses. In 10 tries, they have never beaten Chile in a World Cup qualifier in Santiago.
Chile had their four-match qualifying winning streak snapped with the draw in their last match.
Other World Cup qualifying odds for Tuesday include Argentina vs. Uruguay, the Americans favored against Panama, and Mexico favored vs. Costa Rica.