(Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)
In Madrid, Djokovic came upon Nadal in the semis and he gave the Spaniard something to think about that day. Three times to be exact as that was how many times Djokovic held match point. Had he converted on any one of those three match points the French Open betting landscape would have been even more different. But it didn’t happen and that is significant. Nadal persevered in dramatic style and reached the finals – somewhat exhausted for the effort.
Federer, who had lost to Djokovic in both Miami and Rome, was fortunate not to have the Serbian staring him down; instead, he had a worn-out Nadal to contend with and beat his nemesis handily: 6-4, 6-4.
Undoubtedly, Nadal is a lock for the final at Roland Garros in the eyes of many and most betting folk are likely to be pencilling the Spaniard into the final in their brackets. But in terms of Federer reaching the final and setting up a sequel to the Nadal-Federer rivalry – many are not so sure (myself included). Even after Madrid.
The sports betting public will have to wait until Friday to better assess Federer’s chances of making it to the title match in Paris. But if we were to speculate right now, then the big question of whether Federer will reach the final hinges on the draw, and on which side of the draw Djokovic will fall.
If Djokovic falls in Federer’s half of the draw, the odds of a Nadal-Federer final will diminish significantly. Federer used to be able to school Djokovic consistently but lately he seems to succumb to a mental funk whenever he faces the Serbian – Miami (the infamous racquet smashing) and Rome Masters are case-and-point. As such, if a Federer-Djokovic semi-final comes about in Paris, the betting trend will most likely favour Djokovic.
Federer won’t be admitting this out loud but methinks he would rather see Djokovic in Nadal’s half of the draw. It would save Federer the worry of overcoming the Serbian en route to the final, and it would almost guarantee that the Nadal he would meet in the final would be a weary one, much the same as in Madrid. Although, after that semi (“that” being the Nadal-Djokovic semi), some would think Djokovic is a bigger threat to Nadal than Federer is.
However, to date, Federer is the only one of the two to have beaten Nadal on clay and that goes a long way to shaping the betting trend.
But most will still be picking Nadal to advance and go to his fifth consecutive Roland Garros final.
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