Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Last week, I gave you two choices for your survivor pool.
One (the Rams over the Jaguars) was awesome. This was the game I chose. I survived.
One (the Falcons over the Jets) was not so awesome. If you picked this game, you lost.
The lesson: Make your own decisions and stop blaming me for your mistakes, people.
This week, there are a few viable options. If you haven't used the Broncos, stop reading this right now, go select them and come back. I'll wait.
You're back? Good.
The other options are Seattle over Tennessee, San Francisco over Arizona and Kansas City over Oakland. I already used the Seahawks (when they made mincemeat of Jacksonville), so they're out. I feel better about the 49ers, as the plucky Raiders could make a game of it in Arrowhead, so I'm rolling with San Francisco.
If you select any team other than the one's I've stated, you're doing it wrong.
Now, onto gambling.
History was made earlier this week with the release of the Jaguars/Broncos point spread. Denver was installed as a 28-point favorite, the largest spread in NFL history.
I know what you're thinking: Twenty-eight is a LOT of points.
And you know what? You're right. It is.
Chad Henne will start for the Jaguars, and unlike batterymate Blaine Gabbert, he's not totally horrendous at playing quarterback. Plus, if Denver goes up big, quarterback Peyton Manning might be pulled, leaving Jacksonville a better chance to come back and backdoor-cover the spread.
Those are all fair arguments.
But damn it, don't you dare put one cent of your hard-earned, American money on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Don't you dare.
You either bet the Broncos or don't bet at all. Those are your choices. Denver is the best team in the league and has scored over 50 points in each of its last two games. It scored 51 last Sunday against Dallas. By contrast, the Jaguars have scored 51 points all season.
Don't you dare bet the Jaguars. Don't you dare.
Now, remember when I told you that the Chargers/Raiders game last week would be the easiest contest to wager on all season? I was right. The line moved a full two points in favor of San Diego, making it a six-point favorite by kickoff.
The Raiders won by 10.
The lesson, as always: Go against the public whenever possible.
In that vein, I urge you to closely watch the lines for these three games: Eagles/Bucs, Saints/Patriots and Redskins/Cowboys. There should be major movement for all three of these spreads, and when there is, regardless of what you think will happen, go the other way.
The fountain at the Bellagio was built with money from morons who think they have the NFL figured out. Always remember that.