Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 9, 2013

GAINESVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 06:  Jessamen Dunker #74 of the Florida Gators tackles Russell Shepard #10 of the LSU Tigers during the game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on October 6, 2012 in Gainesville, Florida.  (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

The point spread is seven, and the OddsShark.com computer predicts a final margin of victory of seven. It's too bad for LSU bettors that many believe Florida will win this battle of Top 25 teams out of the SEC.

Point spread: LSU opened as five-point favorites but it was bet to minus-seven by Wednesday; the total was sitting at 47.5 midweek. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 34-27 LSU

Why Florida can cover the spread

While it can be said this is the toughest test the Gators will face, Florida's SEC-leading defense has manhandled opposing offenses through five games with the second-best stop unit in the land. The Gators allow a mere 217 yards per game and have the talent to keep this one close.

Florida is 5-1-1 ATS in seven trips here, according to the OddsShark.com college football database.

Why LSU can cover the spread

On the flip side, not only are the Tigers at home in Death Valley, and have the 23rd-ranked offense that sprints to 488.8 yards per game, but their defense comes in after a stellar second half against Mississippi State, allowing just three points in a 59-26 victory. Balance is something Coach Les Miles demands.

Smart Pick

In three SEC games, LSU has allowed an average of 30 points. Prior to their second-half defensive stand against Mississippi State, the Tigers have been shredded on the ground and through the air by Georgia for four quarters and then by Mississippi State for two more. This is a dog play.


Florida is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games when playing on the road against LSU.

The total has gone OVER in seven of LSU's last nine games.

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