The MLB's Top Five Possible Comeback Stories in 2009
By (Contributor) on May 21, 2009
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Don't call it a comeback...
Yet.
The 2009 MLB season has been going on for almost two months and in that time, fans have been forced to watch in horror—treated to two of the oddest months of baseball in recent memory.
One of those oddities was David Ortiz going without a home run in 133 ABs. But last night's bomb off Toronto youngster Brett Cecil put the wheels in motion for a possible return to glory for the slumping slugger.
Here's a look at five stories of teams/players taking the right steps to avoid being reduced to a punchline.
5. Nick Swisher
Nick Swisher was brought over to the Yankees first to be their full time first basemen. Then, with the acquisition of Mark Teixeira, it seemed that Swisher would be banished to platoon the outfield until Hideki Matsui was good enough to play again. But in April, Nick Swisher put all those thoughts to bed and went on a tear hitting .312 with 7 home runs (all of them away from the launching pad in the Bronx as well).
Then May came and Nick Swisher woke up all those questions by screaming "I'M HITTING .121 WITH 21 STRIKEOUTS!" as loud as he could. So here we sit and try to evaluate the enigma that is Nick Swisher.
He is as streaky as they come, but he showed in Oakland that he can be a productive enough hitter to stay in a line-up (averageing 28 homers and hitting .257 between 2006-2007) before going to Chicago and showing us he can be as bad as he wants to be hitting a dismal .219 in 588 plate appearances.
Projections:
Avg: .243
HR: 24
RBI: 80
Comeback?: Maybe. If he stays in the Yankees lineup on a regular basis, he has a chance to streak his way back into a good hitter. The question is; How long will he stay that good? Personally I think he'll start hitting better at home and will feel the effects of the new Yankee Stadium to the tune of more home runs and perhaps more productivity.
4. The Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays are a team that collectively picked each other up and ran with lightning in a bottle into the playoffs last year. Oh and having almost no injuries to their starting rotation helped a bit too. However 2009 seems to have brought us a team that is more prone to collectively bring each other down. But things could be getting better.
B.J. Upton and Dioner Navarro, two players that held this team together in last year's run and thrived in the playoffs are hitting .359, COMBINED! Upton is hitting a whopping .184 and Navarro is hitting a fearsome .175. And the big righty from Philly, Pat Burrell is currently hitting .250 with one home run—hardly what they envisioned when they inked him for two years at $16 million.
Upton and Burrell are guys that many expect to find their swings. Navarro was hitting well above his head with his .295 average last year. If Upton and/or Burrell can join the party that Carlos Pena (13 HR, 33 RBIs) and Evan Longoria (11 HR 46 RBIs) are throwing then perhaps this Rays team could find their way a bit higher in the standings. Some production out of slumping pitchers Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir wouldn't hurt either.
Projections:
Team W/L: 90 - 72 (Missing the playoffs)
Comeback?: Obviously you want to make the playoffs every year. But when you are a small market team and share a division with the Red Sox and Yankees it just isn't going to happen. Not to mention the early emergence of the Toronto Blue Jays in 2009. There are simply not enough spots in October for a team with 90 wins from the AL East considering the last team with under 95 wins to take the AL East was the 2000 Yankees with 87 wins. Better luck in 2010 Rays.
3. Barry Zito
After a season in which the San Fransisco Giants paid Barry Zito almost $1 Million for each loss ($14.5M/17 Losses), the former Cy Young Award winner came into the 2009 season about as close to rock bottom as you can get.
Though he has only won one game this season carrying a 1-4 record, he has put up some spectacular numbers in the past few outings (10 hits allowed in 40.2 innings) and is just coming off the heels of swallowing a loss—despite a complete game effort which saw Zito only allow 5 hits and 2 earned runs.
He's only put it together for a handful of starts after two dismal outings to begin the season, but with his fastball picking up velocity and his hook returning to form, we may be seeing the reemergence of the Barry Zito of old. Now if only he could get some run support...
My Projections:
W/L: 13 W / 11 L
ERA: 3.50
Ks: 152
Comeback?: It's a start. Hopefully with some confidence and a sub-four ERA, Zito will take the hill with his head held a bit higher. The biggest issue is unfortunately out of his control—an anemic offense.
2. David Ortiz
Rumors of David Ortiz's decline may have been greatly exaggerated.
Though a .203 average and one homer as of May 21st isn't exactly what you'd want to see from your three hitter (or even your nine hitter for that matter), it's exactly what Red Sox Nation wanted to see—one home run. With that rocket to the center field bleachers, Ortiz crossed home plate and let out the sigh of Atlas rolling the world off his shoulders.
The block for Ortiz seemed to be mechanical at the beginning of the season. But as the season went on and Ortiz hadn't put up a home run, thoughts began to creep into Papi's skull and really stifle his ability to hit the ball like he does. Not to say that now he's going to end up with 44 home runs and a .300 average, but it's the step in the right direction that all of New England was waiting for with baited breath.
Projections:
Avg: .253
HR: 21
RBI: 87
Comeback?: Papi never really left. Just 121 ABs doesn't make a hitter go from elite to forgotten. However this season will be huge for Papi. If he manages 20+ homers and can keep his average over .240, he should be able to go into 2010 or perhaps the playoffs with a sense that he is still the Papi of old. If not, this could get scary.
1. Victor Martinez
Victor Martinez is doing exactly what we expected. The only problem is that we expected it to come from DH Travis Hafner!
Martinez has been playing like a man possesed for the first couple months of the season, and is having the best two-month start in his career.
Though Martinez has shown that he can be as streaky as they come (and isn't the healthiest athlete on the diamond), Martinez fans and observers have been waiting for this kind of production from the C/1B/DH since he came into the league.
But when he does it a few years later, people seem to think he's just getting lucky. Hitting .400 and having an OPS of 1.104 doesn't come from luck.
My projections:
BA: .317
HR: 27
RBI: 110
Comeback?: Oh Yeah. Although, if the Indians don't follow V-Mart's lead, he very well may hit his way onto another ball club come July.
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