The Houston Texans did not expect to be 2-3 at this point of the season. Unlike the Odds Shark computer, oddsmakers certainly do not expect them to fall to 2-4 when they host the St. Louis Rams in Week 6 action at Reliant Stadium.
The Rams are obedient underdogs, almost always losing as big road pups, while the Texans have been profitable as big home favorites.
Point spread: Texans opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 43. (Line updates and matchup report.)
Computer Prediction: 15.0-13.5 Rams
Why the Rams can cover the spread
St. Louis is 2-3 and has played to expectations—losing the three games in which it was an underdog and winning its two games as a favorite.
What the Rams need is an upset.
St. Louis had lost three in a row, but apparently put the extra days it had off after falling to the Niners a couple of Thursdays ago to good use, resulting in a relatively easy win over Jacksonville on Sunday.
Why the Texans can cover the spread
Statistically speaking, Houston has been OK, ranking seventh in offense, eighth in rushing and leading the league in total defense.
The big problem has been QB Matt Schaub, who's thrown nine interceptions already this season, four of which have been returned for scores.
If they can just get Schaub to quit turning the ball over, or make a switch to TJ Yates, they could right this ship.
They are 10-4 ATS in 14 home games as chalk of seven points or more, while the Rams are 0-22-1 SU in 23 road games as a dog of seven or more points.
Much will depend on the Houston quarterbacks in this game. If they turn it over, they'll keep St. Louis in the game. If they don't, the Texans, with their running game going against the Rams' porous run defense, have an excellent chance for a bounce-back victory and a cover.
And that's the lean; go with Houston and against the computer's opinion.
Rams 0-22-1 SU as road dog of 7-plus points since 2008
Texans 10-4 ATS lifetime as home chalk of 7-plus points