New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistOctober 8, 2013

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 06:  Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants walks off the field after throwing an interception in the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at MetLife Stadium on October 6, 2013 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.The Philadelphia Eagles defeated the New York Giants 36-21.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Elsa/Getty Images

It’s gotten so bad in New York that, according to Dareh Gregorian of the New York Daily News, Rick's Cabaret won't show New York Giants games because the booing and hissing is bothering the dancers.

Regardless, the Giants have won four in a row at Chicago, so it’s possible. And oddsmakers have handed them nine points in Vegas and at online sportsbooks.

 

Point spread: Bears opened as 3-point favorites but it was bet up quickly to 7.5 by Tuesday; the total was 45. (Line updates and Matchup report.)

 

Computer Prediction: 26.3-6.9 Bears

 

Why the Giants can cover the spread

Well, they've still got Eli Manning, although he's thrown 12 interceptions already this season, and the Giants have won four in a row at Soldier Field. Conceivably, New York may be able to throw the ball against Chicago's 24th-ranked pass defense. And maybe in playing in hostile territory on the road, the Giants might re-kindle a sense of “team.”

They're also 0-5 ATS on the season, which just means they're due, right? Unfortunately, that's the best we can come up with for a team that ranks last in rushing at just 57 yards per game and last in points allowed at 36 per game.

 

Why the Bears can cover the spread

RB Matt Forte is averaging 115 YPG from scrimmage, and while Brandon Marshall is still the big dog among the receivers, second-year pro Alshon Jeffery is emerging on the other side, leading the team at 15 yards per catch, giving QB Jay Cutler another solid weapon.

Also, Chicago's offensive line has only allowed nine sacks so far, while the Giants defense has produced just five sacks, second-fewest in the league. And Cutler can be dangerous with time to throw.

 

Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is predicting a 26-7 Bears victory, but are the Giants really this bad? At the moment it's difficult to recommend taking a team that's been playing so poorly. Chicago's at home, it's tied for first place in its division, and it isn't playing with a massive cloud of funk over its heads. Give the points and back the Bears.

 

Trends:

The total has gone over in eight of the Giants' last 11 games when playing Chicago.

Bears 3-10-1 ATS at home vs NFC East teams since 1999.

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