Oregon Ducks vs. Colorado Buffaloes: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 3, 2013

Oregon has covered the spread in 10 straight road games, but they give Colorado 39 points to start Saturday’s Pac 12 matchup. They haven’t lost on the road since 2009, but do they have the motivation to destroy the Buffaloes?

Point spread: Oregon opened as 36.5-point favorites (bet up to -39 by Thursday); the total was 70. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 76-31 Oregon

Why Oregon can cover the spread

The highly explosive Ducks are about to take on a Colorado team that is just a year removed from an abysmal 1-11 campaign, and that is currently in rebuilding mode with first year head coach Mike MacIntyre. The Ducks have the nation's third-best offense that gains nearly 600 yards per game.

They have covered 10 straight on the road, often laying big chalk.

Why Colorado can cover the spread

While the Buffaloes come in after a 44-17 loss at Oregon State, a game that saw them allow 540 yards, including 414 through the air, they still have an aerial attack paced by wide receiver Paul Richardson, who has 487 yards receiving through three games. Covering nearly 40 points can't be that hard.

Imagine the pregame speech – “C’mon fellas, just keep it within six converted touchdowns!”

Smart Pick

Who wouldn't take 39-point road favorite in a stadium that has seen big-time upsets? Oregon probably won't lose, but it also may lay off the gas pedal once it has breathing room, with a trip to Seattle to face No. 15 Washington on deck next week. The look-ahead factor could play a role.

Trends:

Oregon 10-0 ATS past 10 road games

Colorado is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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