Second-Order Hitting UVI: A Few Facts and Examples

As far as 2nd-order UVI goes, it usually won't get anywhere near zero with a decent sample size. For example, Bobby Crosby put up a .374 UVI last year with a batting line of .226/.278/.341. Therefore, most second-order UVI's usually sit above .350. Generally, if a hitter can't top that, they get sent down or released.

UVI As A Problem-Solver: The Dodgers Outfield

Perhaps UVI's greatest asset on the hitting side of things is its combination of hitting and baserunning. Proponents of speed players often scoff at stats like OPS because they don't take into account all the extra bases a speed player can make through stealing and bunting. UVI does account for that.

Now, the Dodgers have four outfielders supposedly worthy of starting jobs: Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Juan Pierre, and Andre Ethier. Statheads like me hate Pierre, and think he is best relegated to fifth outfielder duty, while traditionalists think he's a prototypical leadoff man. Anyone's mind can be erroneous when thinking about such things, including mine, so I decided I would let the numbers do the talking and see what they had to say.

Second order UVI's of the Dodgers' four outfielders, 2006-07:

Matt Kemp: .473 in 2006, .515 in 2007

Andre Ethier: .478 in 2006, .460 in 2007

Juan Pierre: .445 in 2006, .430 in 2007

Andruw Jones: .567 in 2006, .451 in 2007

Ahh...so the statheads win. Joe Torre made a good call. What's interesting here, however, and something to keep an eye on, is how close Ethier's, Jones', and Pierre's 2007 UVIs were. So far this season, it has been Ethier who has gotten the most starts, and Kemp is third. Kemp seems miles ahead of the rest, and the optimal alignment would seem to be Ethier in left, Jones in center, and Kemp in right.

Notice also that for all their youth and virtues, neither Kemp nor Ethier has come close to Jones' 06. This is proof that a low ISW (in Kemp's case) or low ISO (in Ethier's case) makes it tough to put up a big UVI. Jones hit .262 in 2006, while Kemp hit .342 in 2007. Jones' slugging percentage was .531 to Kemp's .521, but it's the walk rate difference that really helps Jones out. This also serves as test point No. 5258 that batting average doesn't mean a whole lot in the end. 

Test Point No. 5259: Juan Pierre. 

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