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It's 2nd-and-1 and 3rd-and-1 from the opponent's 3-yard line. What personnel package does Atlanta throw out there?
If you guessed the logical two-tight end, two-running back package with an extra lineman in there to gain at least the yard to get four more chances at the end zone, you'd be 100 percent wrong.
Nope, instead, Atlanta opts for 11 personnel or just one tight end and one running back with three receivers.
And instead of calling a run play to try and gain that singular yard, they miss on consecutive passes and kick a field goal. So why do the Falcons not put the best 11 men on the field for that situation?
It looks like they are over-coaching right now to try and get something to happen. Don't over think it. Don't worry if they can see it coming. The red zone offense is about imposing your will on the other team.
And Atlanta has been unable to do that.
They need to take a lesson from the 2010 Falcons who would line up in that 22 personnel and just pound the rock up the middle with no remorse in that kind of situation. They need to make sure the personnel on the field matches the situation on the field.
This is the biggest issue with the offense in the red zone. And it's the thing the offense does the best at when they are out of the red zone. And that's no coincidence.
All stats used are either from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN, CFBStats or the NFL. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, NFL and NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.