New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
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The Chicago Bears (3-1) host the New Orleans Saints (4-0) as rare home underdogs in Week 5 action at Soldier Field. After a roaring Monday night win, the Saints look like a very dangerous underdog.

Point spread: Saints opened as 1-point underdogs; the total was 47. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 32.1-25.3 Saints

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans is a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with head coach Sean Payton back on the sidelines. The Saints' offense is clicking again, to the tune of 420 YPG, and Rob Ryan's defense is holding foes to less than 14 PPG.

New Orleans seems to have its mojo back, and a win at Chicago, considering the Bears are also off to a good start, might mean something come January. They have won and covered three straight as a small underdog of three or less points.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago started 3-0 for new head coach Marc Trestman, before letting Sunday's game at Detroit get away. The Bears are averaging 32 PPG, and at times have moved the ball almost at will.

And while the defense has had some early problems, it can still pressure the quarterback and create turnovers. They have struggled to cover the spread at home.

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark NFL predictor computer is calling for a 32-25 Saints victory, and it's hard to argue with that. Even playing on the road on a short week New Orleans still looks like the better team at the moment.

And Chicago is just 1-6-1 ATS over its last eight home games. The better choice might be the total, where these teams have played five straight OVERs at Soldier Field.

Trends:

Past 5 meetings at Soldier Field played OVER total (since 2000)

Bears 1-6-1 ATS past eight home games

Saints won and covered three straight as small road dog

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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