Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction ColumnistOctober 1, 2013

GREEN BAY, WI - DECEMBER 09:  DuJuan Harris #26 of the Green Bay Packers scores a touchdown in front of Ricardo Silva #39 of the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field on December 9, 2012 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Lions 27-20.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers come off a bye week needing a win, and they host a team that has not beaten them at home in 21 tries.

The Detroit Lions (3-1) have not won at Lambeau Field since 1991, and oddsmakers made them steep underdogs to break that streak in 2013.

Point spread: Packers opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 51.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 31.9-29.5 Lions


Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit leads the NFC North at 3-1 and would be 4-0 had it held on in Arizona back in Week 2. The Lions just put a hurtin' on the Bears Sunday, leading 40-16 at one point, and are 3-0-1 ATS. And that defensive front four is causing some havoc, helping Chicago's Jay Cutler commit four turnovers.


Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay is 1-2 but should be at least 2-1 after blowing a 16-point lead at Cincy two weeks ago. The Packers, as always, continue to get great play from QB Aaron Rodgers and his wonderful receiving corps, and lo and behold, they've had 100-yard rushers in back-to-back games. Green Bay has also beaten Detroit 21 times in a row in the state of Wisconsin and 14 of the last 15 times overall.

The Packers also dominate with an extra week of rest (6-0-1 ATS), while the Lions are toothless as road underdogs (1-5-1 ATS).


Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is calling for the Lions to break that long road losing streak versus the Packers with a 32-30 victory. And this might be Detroit's best chance to win at Lambeau in recent memory.

But Green Bay is coming off a very timely off-week and should be ready to go for this divisional showdown. Give the points and take the Pack.



Packers 6-0-1 ATS past seven years after a bye week.

Lions 1-5-1 ATS past seven as road underdog.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Sharkfollow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.