Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
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The Dallas Cowboys (2-2) haven’t been home underdogs of eight points since 2001, when they closed as 9.5-point pups to Tampa Bay.

But when you host the Denver Broncos (4-0) this season, chances are you will be an underdog, and chances are this line will climb higher.

 

Point spread: Broncos opened as eight-point favorites; the total was 55. Line updates and matchup report can be found here.

Computer Prediction: 46.9-30.9 Broncos

 

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Sixteen touchdown passes, zero interceptions. That's the only ratio needed to invest in quarterback Peyton Manning, who has completed 75 percent of his passes for 1,470 yards in four blowout wins by an average score of 45-22.

It was the best September production of any NFL quarterback in history. Oh, and don’t forget: The Broncos dominate the Cowboys historically, and they dominate as road favorites.

 

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

New defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin revamped Dallas' defense, and after a 2-2 start, it's arguably been the best storyline for the Cowboys this season. Dallas has produced turnovers, sacks and several big plays.

Kiffin's experience could have the Cowboys prepped to rebound from last week's letdown, but it’s a tough task against the juggernaut Denver offense.

 

Smart Pick

Kiffin's defense may be strong against the run this season, but the Cowboys rank near the bottom of the league in pass defense. Now here comes Manning, who has carved through the defensive units of the Ravens, Giants, Raiders and Eagles. What's to stop him from doing the same here?

Denver is 6-1-1 against the spread since the OddsShark.com NFL database started tracking lines in 1980, and it has favorable trends against all NFC East teams (8-1 ATS past nine games).

 

Trends

- Broncos 6-2 straight up, 6-1-1 ATS versus Cowboys since 1980.

- Broncos 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS past eight as road favorite.

- Broncos 8-1 ATS past nine versus NFC East teams.

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.

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