The 2009 HP Byron Nelson Classic Six Pack

They say every lock has a key.

I have a rock solid lock that Adam Scott will NOT win this weeks HP Byron Nelson Classic in Irving, TX this week.

Too bad I can't find that prop anywhere.

These Texas events are tough to cap due to the fact that there are so many "one hit wonders" that climb up the leader boards.

There are very few guys with solid track records at TPC Four Season at Las Colinas. There were lots of guys that had me posing the question, "What if..."

One of them being Vijay Singh. He has been nothing short of awful in 2009 (by Vijay standards that is). Then out of the blue, he bounces back from being cut at Quail Hollow a few weeks ago to placing T9 at The Players Championship! Vijay has played well at this event over the years and has even won it before. What if he shows up this week?

What if Luke Donald was in the field? Better yet, why the hell isn't he in this field?!?! Donald has been playing solid golf this year, and has finally overcome his wrist issues. He has played phenomenally here over the years. He is always in the top 20 and was runner up in 2007. It baffles me why he has opted out this week.

What if Carl Petterrsson could get going? This guy has some MAJOR troubles, and is always a solid performer on tour. This is typically the time of year he is warmed up and ready to contend. I don't think he's ready yet. He may want to step out of the freezer this week and absorb some good 'ol Texas heat.

What if Tim Herron and John Daly had a wing eating contest? Would the domestic wing market notice a sharp decline in supply for a few weeks?

Now I'm getting off track, sorry.

In Yahoo Fantasy golf, I am currently in 3rd place out of 657 in my group, The Fans Of Hunter Mahan. I currently rank 285th out of over 60,000 in the entire pool.

Some of you may be wondering why all of my six pack selections are not always in my Yahoo selections. I will share one small hint with you as to why this is.

When I am picking my six pack I am trying to select guys at 20/1 or higher to WIN the tournament.

Yahoo's fantasy scoring does not work that way. In Yahoo, I am trying to pick the golfer who is going to perform the best ROUND by ROUND. So let's say Zach Johnson goes out and shoots -4 in round one and +1 in round two. Charley Hoffman shoots +2 in round one but -6 on round two. Ideally you would want to know that Hoffman maybe is typically a better second round player than ZJ, so in this case, hopefully you started Zach on day one, then switched him out and started Charley on day 2.

The above example is strictly hypothetical, Hoffman is not necessarily a better second round player than ZJ. The bottom line is that you must do your homework as to which players play well in which rounds, and to construct a solid team that sets you up for success each week.

No more hints.

Before we slide a six pack your way, let's go over my selections and starters for the Yahoo Fantasy League.

GROUP A
Robert Allenby (ST), Phil Mickelson

GROUP B
Charley Hoffman (ST), David Toms (ST), Steve Marino, Rod Pampling

GROUP C
Ian Poulter (ST), Scott Verplank

Let's get busy cracking open this six pack.

No. 1— Justin Leonard

Justin Leonard is having a solid year in 2009.

He's also a Texas Longhorn, and you know he wants to represent this weekend in his home state.

Although Leonard has played well here over the years, he has never won this event. I think that his accuracy rank of 15th on tour is going to help him out on this tree lined, difficult golf course.

It also is nice to know that Leonard also ranks 15th in another important stat on a tough course...scrambling.

Justbuster has played well in his last five PGA events going 19th, CUT, 48th, 32nd, and fifth last weekend at The Valero Texas Open. He is 9 for 12 in cuts made this year.

I like Justin Leonard this week at 20:1 odds to win.

No. 2— Charley Hoffman

I mailed Charley some hair clippers this week. I have a feeling he probably won't be using them.

Hoffman remains a perfect 12 for 12 in cuts made this year.

He typically does well during the Texas swing each year, and has placed in the top ten twice in three attempts at the Byron Nelson Classic.

Hoffman continues to light it up in '09 and had a terrific third round 63 last week. I like him to continue his excellent play right into the Byron Nelson event this week.

Charley ranks first on tour in birdies made this year at 206. He also can absolutely crush the ball off the tee, but he is not super accurate. It's a good thing he can putt well.

I think that 25:1 odds of winning is exactly perfect for Hoffman, sign me up.

#3 Scott Verplank

This is probably the most special tournament for Scotty each year.

Byron Nelson has always been Verplank's hero and when he won here in 2007, the emotion was palpable. The joy he conveyed spread as I watched him win that event. Just thinking about that match makes the hair on my neck tingle as though I were watching it again for the first time.

Verplank has also been a runner up here, and has a hand full of other decent finishes.

Verplank has gone 31,21,42,49,and 24 in his last five events. I have a feeling he steps that up a notch this weekend.

Verplank is one of the most accurate guys on tour, ranked at No. 5. He also ranks 20th on tour in scoring average at 70.22 strokes per round.

You'd think with stats like those we might hear his name thrown around a little bit more.

Scott played awesome last weekend, scoring three rounds under 70. I like him to carry this momentum, and would love to see this guy chalk up another victory at Las Colinas on Sunday.

Oh yeah Scotty has made nine cuts in a row.

He is slotted at 30:1 odds to win the whole enchilada.

No, 4—Kevin Na

I can't believe Kevin Na has not won a tournament yet. He has two T3 finishes already this year.

He bowed out of the Valero Open last week, but fear not, I don't believe he is injured, as he normally takes the following week off after a successful showing.

Na is 8 for 12 on cuts made this year, and is one of the very best putters on tour. He ranks seventh on tour with an scoring average of 69.83, which is nothing short of phenomenal.

Kevin can go low. No course record is safe if this guy is playing. Na also ranks 15th on tour in "All Around Ranking."

Na has played very well in three of his last five tournaments with a T11, a T9, and a T3.

I suggest you join me and ride the lightning with Kevin Na this weekend at 40:1 odds.

No. 5—Steve Marino

Here's another guy that's due to win. He had a shaky period earlier, but is poised to get back to his contending ways.

He has played in this event twice. The first time was a T10 and last year was a T42. I think he can do better than what he did last year.

Marino is very capable of stringing four sub-70 rounds together. Hopefully he can find that form he had in California and Hawaii earlier this winter.

Marino's most impressive stat is his rank of 24th in GIR percentage. He is a good enough putter, that if he gets on in regulation, he can go low.

Steve "DCMD" Marino is excellent value this week at 50:1 odds

No. 6—Shigeki Maruyama

It's long shot time.

Maruyama has not played in a PGA tour event in two-and-a-half months. I tried to find out what he has been up to, and it is a mystery.

My guess is that he faded away while things were going well, as his 2008 was terrible.

Shigeki is coming back to play in an event that he has won before, and has three more T10's on top of that.

It's funny that Maruyama ranks first on the PGA tour in scoring average at 69.54. But don't forget he has only played 13 rounds on tour this year!

It's a bit of a risky pick, but at 60:1 I'm going to give Shigeki a shot.

I wish you all the best this week, no matter who you pick.