The Stat That Will Revolutionize Baseball: Introducing UVI

Third-order stuff is the same as with hitters; just mess with coefficients for BB, K, HR, and GB% in similar way, although this time the coefficients will be greater than 1.

UVI FAQ's 

What's a good UVI and a bad UVI?

One of the reasons I like the pitching UVI so much is that the system can spit out the other numbers along with it. Not only do you have the UVI itself, but you have more familiar things to compare it to, like ERA and WHIP. Generally, if the other stats all look good, the UVI will be good as well.

For hitters, it obviously depends on the position. I've run enough UVIs that I would guess "average" is somewhere around .460 or .470. In general, below .400 is very bad and above .500 is very good. Also note that pitchers and hitters have inverse UVI's; that is, the higher the UVI, the better for a hitter, but the lower the better for a pitcher.

Does this have predictive value?

Yes and no. While I don't currently have a formula in place, predicting UVI increases until age 27, stability through 30, and decline from there is easy to see. The tough thing is getting all the other data as well to line up. It's my next big project, but no, there is currently no set system in place.

This sounds pretty interesting, but there's no way in hell I have as much time on my hands to do this as you do. Can I have the UVI spreadsheet?

Sure, just email me at stoltznh@jmu.edu. You need to have a basic knowledge of how to work Excel.

What is (player x)'s UVI?

Feel free to ask me this, but be aware that I can't get to everyone. You can always just run it yourself. If you have any ideas for a study I can do on something, or a question that you think this can solve, I might write up an article on it (just comment here or post on my board).

Where does one find HBP and GIDP and all that stuff to put into the formula?

I'd recommend The Baseball Cube for that, since they have minor league stuff through '07. Baseball Reference is good for the '08 major league data. '08 minor league data on GIDP, HBP, bunts, and sac flies can be a pain to find; check the team's website and hope you get lucky.

Why UVI Tells Us More Than We Already Knew

UVI is the only stat that exists that combines baserunning and situational hitting with pure offense to determine a batter's overall value. It also has a fair amount of in-game tactical value. If the pitcher on the mound has a .4 UVI, and the batter has a .5 UVI, we can estimate that the batter will create an average of .45 bases per plate appearance against that pitcher.

It's the only stat that really transcends the differences between hitting and pitching, so it's a useful comparable for hitters and pitchers. It also works better than VORP because it isn't a counting stat, so it's not about how much you play, but instead, simply how you play. 

I hope you've found this both informative and interesting.  If you have any questions about this, just comment here, post a note on my profile, or send me an email. Feel free to use UVI wherever you want—I'll even help you out if you want to do a study involving it—but give me credit for my idea.

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