Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Underdogs That Will Cover Your Bet
Even before Week 4 of the NFL season ends, you can look ahead to the next slate of games to find the best lines against the spread.
It is certainly risky to make bets early in the NFL week, as things can dramatically change as information comes out in the coming days, including injury news. However, it also provides a good way to beat everyone to the punch before lines shift one way or the other.
The spreads for Week 5 feature a number of underdogs who deserve a lot more respect than the lines give them. Here are some solid picks that are almost certain to cover their spreads.
Note: All lines courtesy of Vegas Insider as of Sept. 30.
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at New York Giants
There is a difference between bad and awful, and that is what separates these two teams at the start of the season.
The Eagles have been making mistakes offensively, but this is still a tough unit to stop. LeSean McCoy remains one of the best running backs in the league, and Chip Kelly's offense causes defenses to struggle to keep up.
Meanwhile, the Giants have been a train wreck on both sides of the ball. They have allowed the most points in football thanks to giving up at least 30 in every game this year. Even the defensive line has struggled with a league-low four sacks so far, which is rare for this organization.
On offense, the squad simply cannot hold onto the football. The team's 16 turnovers in four games is by far the worst in the NFL.
Philadelphia will be able to win the battle up front in this game and possibly even win the turnover battle in a rare twist of fate. This should be enough to earn a road win over the division rival.
Indianapolis Colts (+3) vs. Seattle Seahawks
It is hard to bet against a team considered by many to be the best in the league, but the Seahawks are far from perfect. They are especially susceptible to an upset on the road.
A terrible play by Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub at the end of last game allowed Seattle to grab victory from the jaws of defeat and move to 4-0. However, it left questions about the offense's ability on the road after the unit has only scored two touchdowns in as many games.
In his career, Russell Wilson is 10-0 at home but 5-5 in the regular season on the road. His 27-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio at CenturyLink Field is much better than his 5-7 mark elsewhere.
This will give the Colts a chance to pull the upset in a place where they have been almost as successful. Andrew Luck is 8-2 at home in his career, and the offense is starting to shape up with the addition of Trent Richardson.
If the quarterback can avoid a devastating mistake, Indianapolis should be able to pull off this upset.
Oakland Raiders (+6) vs. San Diego Chargers
A lot of this will be based on health for the Oakland Raiders. Terrelle Pryor should return after missing last game with concussion symptoms, although the availability of Darren McFadden is a bigger question after the running back left last game with a hamstring injury.
Still, the Chargers defense has not been anything special, and a healthy quarterback could put up some points.
Of course, the story will be on the other side of the ball. Philip Rivers has been incredible over the past few weeks, completing over 75 percent of his passes in three straight games. However, he has had an easier time due to the fact that he has not been under much pressure.
In these three contests, he has been sacked a total of four times and hit four times. When he was pressured against the Houston Texans in Week 1 (five quarterback hits), he struggled down the stretch and completed only one of his seven fourth-quarter pass attempts in a loss.
The Raiders are capable of providing pressure up front, and it will cause Rivers to have trouble on the road. This will be enough for Oakland to earn a win, or at least cover this relatively big spread.
|Away Team||Home Team||Line||Predicted Winner (ATS)|
|Buffalo Bills||Cleveland Browns||CLE -4||Browns|
|Kansas City Chiefs||Tennessee Titans||KC -3||Chiefs|
|Baltimore Ravens||Miami Dolphins||MIA -3||Dolphins|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||St. Louis Rams||STL -11.5||Jaguars|
|New England Patriots||Cincinnati Bengals||CIN -1||Bengals|
|Seattle Seahawks||Indianapolis Colts||SEA -3||Colts|
|Detroit Lions||Green Bay Packers||GB -7||Lions|
|New Orleans Saints||Chicago Bears||CHI -1||Bears|
|Philadelphia Eagles||New York Giants||NYG -2.5||Eagles|
|Carolina Panthers||Arizona Cardinals||CAR -1.5||Panthers|
|San Diego Chargers||Oakland Raiders||SD -6||Raiders|
|Denver Broncos||Dallas Cowboys||DEN -6.5||Broncos|
|Houston Texans||San Francisco 49ers||SF -6.5||49ers|
|New York Jets||Atlanta Falcons||ATL -8||Falcons|
via Vegas Insider
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