Matt Forte's Updated 2013 Fantasy Outlook and Trade Value After Week 4
It took Matt Forte just two quarters and one run to remind owners why he's one of the most valuable commodities in fantasy football this season.
In the second quarter of the game between the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions, Forte scampered 53 yards for a touchdown, ensuring that he would have another big day for fantasy owners. In standard-scoring leagues, Forte has now reached double-digit fantasy points in all four weeks.
He also achieved a rare feat with the run, as noted by the Bears' official Twitter account:
He finished the game with 95 yards and a touchdown on the ground, adding another 22 yards on five receptions.
At this point, Forte is locked in as an RB1, which he pretty much was coming into the game. For owners who nabbed Forte in the second round, the production has made him quite the value. If you were going to trade Forte—and honestly, why would you trade an RB1 in a year with so much inconsistency at the position?—now would probably be the time to do so.
His value is incredibly high at the moment, and it might not get much higher. In PPR leagues, you had better be blown away with an offer if you are going to deal him.
Some of the old concerns about Forte have been irrelevant this year. For one thing, in the past he wasn't a steady source of touchdowns. In the prior two seasons, he had just 10 touchdowns total.
After four games in 2013, he's already scored three times.
For another, relying too heavily on Jay Cutler's arm is always a risky approach. Before Forte's touchdown run, Cutler had already thrown a pick, as noted by Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated:
That's one way to bounce back from a Jay Cutler pick: Just let Matt Forte go nuts.— Chris Burke (@ChrisBurke_SI) September 29, 2013
It's a strategy Bears' fans would likely get behind.
Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Forte is averaging 0.31 fantasy points per snap. That's fifth in the NFL among running backs that have played at least 50 percent of their team's snaps this season. In other words, Forte is one of the most efficient backs in all of fantasy.
And that's why it's probably wise to hold on to Forte. Chances are, you aren't going to find too many more consistent sources of fantasy points in the NFL. If you are going to trade him, his value his quite high right now, but make sure you get back the security on a weekly basis you are trading away.
Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy lineup questions, make ill-fated NFL predictions and tweet cheesy jokes. You bring the brats.
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