Week 4 NFL Predictions: Projecting Top Bets Against the Spread

Alex KayCorrespondent ISeptember 27, 2013

Sep 22, 2013; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount (29) runs the ball against Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive end Adrian Clayborn (94) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Week 4 of the 2013 NFL season is a great chance for bettors to turn their luck around.

Thanks to bye weeks, those who haven’t been as fortunate in the first few weeks of the campaign are now looking at fewer games to risk their bankroll on. That means there is a better chance to make the right play, especially if you take a few minutes to analyze the lines.

Keep reading to see the latest lines for each remaining Week 4 contest, my predictions for each against the spread and a closer look at some games you aren’t going to want to miss wagering on this coming Sunday.


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5) over New York Giants

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 19:  Alex Smith #11 of the Kansas City Chiefs tries to avoid being sacked by  Nate Allen #29 of the Philadelphia Eagles in the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on September 19, 2013 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Pho
Rich Schultz/Getty Images

This looks to be the biggest lock on the board, as the home team that has yet to commit a turnover on offense and features a lockdown defense hosts a downtrodden franchise that can’t seem to grasp the concept of ball security or mount a defensive stand.

The undefeated Chiefs are the vastly superior squad in this scenario and should have no problem dispatching the 0-3 Giants in this showdown.

Head coach Andy Reid has injected new life into the Kansas City football team, while quarterback Alex Smith has been a revelation under center when compared to last year’s disastrous duo of Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn.

Considering the Chiefs are tops in the league with a plus-nine turnover differential—compared to the NFL-worst G-Men at minus-9—and you are looking at the recipe for a blowout.

Expect Reid to call a balanced offense that features star running back Jamaal Charles pounding the rock and Smith making dink-and-dunk passes up and down the field before taking cautious deep shots.

Contrast that with Big Blue’s game plan recently—basically ineffective rushes with David Wilson, Da’Rel Scott and even Brandon Jacobs, as well as bad passes in tough situations by interception-prone quarterback Eli Manning—and it is easy to see why the Chiefs are the right team to get behind.

It’ll be clear once the first fumble or interception goes KC's way and should pave the way for a nice, worry-free ATS win for the chalk.


New England Patriots (+2.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

The undefeated Pats are coming into this one as underdogs against the 1-2 Falcons, a mistake that likely means the betting public has abandoned ship and doesn’t trust New England after a rocky start.

It’s an unfortunate situation for them as the Patriots are primed to move to 4-0 and leave the Dirty Birds in panic mode as they drop to 1-3 at the quarter mark of the 2013 campaign.

Anyone who watched New England last week could see the emerging rapport between quarterback Tom Brady and his stable of young receivers. Kenbrell Tompkins finally burst onto the scene with two scores, while Aaron Dobson was able to hang on to his targets and generated 52 yards on seven receptions.

The Pats defense was also impressive, holding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to just three points and frustrating opposing head coach Greg Schiano so much that he decided to switch starting quarterbacks this week.

As long as New England can continue to play a bend-but-don’t-break style on that side of the football, it should be fine against the Falcons. Atlanta was able to score just two touchdowns in a heart-breaking 27-23 loss to the Miami Dolphins and relied on kicker Matt Bryant far too much.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will be fine with allowing his opponent to boot balls through the uprights from a distance, especially if he’s getting touchdowns from his potentially explosive offense that seems to finally be clicking.

Don’t be surprised if the ‘dog wins this one straight up, as the Pats have the tools to get the job done in the Georgia Dome on Sunday Night Football.