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Two bold predictions in one slide! Don’t say I never gave you anything.
David Wilson rushing for over 100 yards, and breaking at least one long run, is bolder than the first two predictions simply because of how bad a job the Giants offense, as a whole, has done run blocking this season. They have consistently been dominated at the point of attack and have looked overmatched on an inordinate amount of plays.
This is largely the reason why New York is dead last in the NFL with 44.3 rushing yards per game on a miniscule 2.7 yards per carry.
Worse still, the offensive line is severely banged up, with starting left guard Chris Snee and starting center David Baas both hurt, according to a report by Ebenezer Samuel of the New York Daily News. They join right tackle David Diehl, who is likely out another game or two following surgery on his thumb in August.
Also, starting fullback Henry Hynoski is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury he suffered against the Panthers, according to a report by Conor Orr of The Star-Ledger.
The reason, though, that Wilson will have a successful day on the ground comes down to speed. The 22-year-old has it, and the Chiefs defense doesn’t appear to handle it very well.
Kansas City allowed 253 yards combined on only 25 carries to the Eagles duo of LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick. In addition, each had a scamper over 40 yards in the game.
While both of these players are certainly more accomplished runners than Wilson, they are arguably not as explosive. When Wilson gets into the open field, he is simply electric.
Why may the Chiefs have a problem against this type of back?
It could be due to a set of linebackers that's average stopping the run, based on run ratings by Pro Football Focus (subscription required), with 2012 Pro Bowler Derrick Johnson the lone exception.
Johnson has an average run rating of 1.5 this season, but his 11.1 mark last season proves his worth as a run-stopper. Akeem Jordan, Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, however, are all under a one rating this season, and only Hali was above zero in 2012, at 4.2.
With the Giants run-blocking woes, Wilson may not have a consistent day on Sunday, but he’ll exploit the chances he gets when he does enter the second level of the Chiefs defense.