The good news is that one could argue that Marque Fountain and Nathan Peterson are returning starters. Fountain started 9 games in 2004 and had 7 tackles for a loss, then missed 2005 and started 4 games a year ago as injuries have plagued him. Injuries also have cost Nathan Peterson. Peterson, in his second year back from an ACL injury didn't start last year, but he did play a lot, especially in passing situations and registered 8 sacks. The key this year for him will be to be able to hold up against the run, as at 240 lbs, he's not the biggest defensive end in a conference full of 300 lb offensive tackles. Adding depth on the outside is stud freshmen Richettie Jones. With Peterson starting, Jones will likely assume Peterson's role as situational pass rusher, a role he could excel in. Inside though there are bigger question marks as there is virtually no experience.
The line's strength will be its pass rush, though with the questions inside, and the lack of size outside, the run stopping abilities of this line will be tested, which will put a big onus on the linebackers, who should be up to the challenge. This is a unit that is gifted athletically and boasts good size. Rodrick Johnson, at 6-3, 250 is a senior and the glue to this defense, but he could also be used some on the defensive line as they might play Fountain inside more often. Johnson doesn't excel in pass coverage, but his steady and good against the run. The outside linebackers though are both young, and both frighteningly gifted. Patrick Lavine started 9 games as a true freshman a year ago and finished 2nd on the team in tackles, including 7 behind the line of scrimmage. He also proved more than capable in pass coverage. On the other side, if he gets past the legal troubles, is Chris Collins, a redshirt sophomore who is among the more talented linebackers in the Big Twelve. At 240 and running with speed like a defensive back, Collins could be in store for a huge season. He was leading the team in tackles after 6 games last year before tearing his ACL. His ability to come back from that injury will play a major, major role in how much the Cowboys defense improves this season. Alex Odiari and Jeremy Nethon were the two who replaced him last year, and while both are steady, neither is close to the playmaker Collins is. His presence, and his being at his best, will be huge for this defense, as it will allow new defensive coordinator Tim Beckman to get very creative on defense. This front seven is full of athletic guys between 230 and 250 lbs who can be interchangeable at linebacker and defensive end, so Beckman will have plenty of players to get very creative with. Another intriguing possibility is that with Ricky Price's strong spring, Donovan Woods, the former quarterback turned safety who made 62 tackles last year at safety could be moved to outside linebacker if Collins can't go due to legal problems or his knee.
Price is a receiver turned defensive back who has caught 20 passes in his first two years. If Woods stays at safety, he will team with sophomore Andre Sexton to provide one of the faster safety tandems in the conference, if not one of the better duos. Sexton led the team in tackles last year and also tied for the team lead in tackles for a loss, as a true freshman. He's got superstar written all over him, and with experience you can only imagine he will improve in pass coverage. Martel Van Zant is an all league caliber cornerback. The number two corner isn't set in stone, and sophomore Perrish Cox will push junior Jacob Lacey for the job. Cox is a little bigger, and is probably a little more talented. Lacey started all 13 games last year and is a good tackler, but he doesn't have a lot of big play ability. If Cox limits his giving up the big play, he presents the better option. The pass defense wasn't bad last year, only three teams threw for over 300 yards, and those three were Texas, Texas Tech and Houston, teams that had pretty good passing attacks.
On the surface, it appears the offense has no questions, not with 8 starters returning from a team that put up the numbers it did last year. However, the passing game was inconsistent last year. If not for the 411 yards against Kanas this passing attack would have ranked even lower than the 8th place ranking it had in passing yards per game in conference play. Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Colorado were worse. Quarterback Bobby Reid suffered through some injuries last year that probably helped contribute to the inconsistencies, not to mention he was still learning on the go. Now as a seasoned junior, much is expected of Reid. He better produce because they don't have a lot faith in Zac Robinson, though Alex Cate does offer some potential behind him.
Progress made by Reid though could be offset by some attrition at receiver. Artrell Woods was expected to start, but a freak weight room incident may have ended his college football career. Additionally senior Anthony Parks has opted to transfer, and with Ricky Price moving to safety, some depth concerns have reared their ugly head at the position. Adarius Bowman is one of the best receivers in all of college football, but he won't have D'Juan Woods to keep defenses honest this year, so he will be hard pressed to reach the 60 catches and 1,000 yards he had last year. True freshman Desmond Bryant was going to be expected to contribute off the bat as it was, now there is even more pressure on him to come in and produce. He's definitely talented enough, one of the most sought after receivers in America and he has good size. The Cowboys are one of the few teams in the nation that can boast of two 220 lb receivers that run like guys 195. Expect tight end Brandon Pettigrew's role to increase more as well. He caught 24 passes last year, but I imagine he'll have a few more chances this year. At 6'6' he's a big target. The size of the pass catchers alone should help Reid increase his 55.4 completion percentage from a year ago, but there is still the depth issue here.
Whatever depth issues are at receiver certainly don't exist in the backfield. Mike Hamilton, who nearly ran for 1,000 yards as a freshman in 2005, and then ran for 546 and averaged 5.6 ypc last year transferred to Georgia Southern, and the Cowboys won't skip a beat, that's how good this backfield is. Dantrell Savage can fly, but he's a tough runner too. He was hurt at the beginning of the year last season and was probably never 100 percent, and he still ran for 820 yards and 6.5 ypc. Behind him, Keith Toston is probably even faster, and Julius Crosslin is an experienced running back who provides a little power to the backfield. Bobby Reid also added over 600 yards rushing himself. The Cowboys ran for 2,704 yards last year and 23 touchdowns. The possibility exists that they could duplicate those numbers again this season.
Both tackles return on the offensive line, and for a team whose running game is based on speed, having those tackles to seal the perimeter is vital. Adding to the excitement is left tackle Russell Okung, who started 8 games as a true freshmen last year and put on and additional 20 lbs, which is important as this Cowboys offensive line isn't exactly big. They do have to replace both their guards, as Steve Denning and Andrew Lewis were both 2nd string last year but played very little. The teams in the south are loaded at defensive tackle, so the play of these two is going to be very, very critical this season.
The special teams in Stillwater are always good under Joe DeForest and this year's unit should rank among the best in the Big Twelve. Perrish Cox was dynamic as a return man a year ago and should once again excel in that role. Jason Ricks didn't miss a field goal under 40 yards all season last year, and was 3-5 on kicks of 40 and beyond, so the Cowboys do have a reliable kicker to turn to.
Oklahoma State fans are excited, and they should be. Unfortunately, the road schedule isn't kind to the Cowboys. They may very well knock off Texas in November, but it probably won't be enough to propel them higher up in the division. They have to play at Texas A&M and Oklahoma, and they draw Nebraska from the north and must play them in Lincoln. The Cowboys have gone just 3-8 under Gundy on the road, and are just 6-14 on the road in conference games the past 5 years. Oklahoma State, definitely on defense, was a much better team at home than on the road a year ago, and unless they can reverse that trend, those three road games are going to likely derail any hopes of winning the Big Twelve. Considering they've lost 10 of 11 to Kansas State as well, and they have to face Georgia on the road to open, this is a team with a drastic difference in best case/worst case scenarios. Worst case is they lose 6 games. Best case is that this is a team with enough talent to think about challenging for the division crown, and they either snap a three game losing streak to Texas A&M or they beat Texas for the first time since 1997. Although even if they head to Norman to close the year with a shot to beat Oklahoma and win the division, the fact that they've lost the last two games in Norman by a combined score of 94-23 will probably be on their minds. Ultimately, their game with the Aggies is the one they need to have circled as it will either leave them in a position to challenge for a top tier bowl, or leave them scrambling to make one at all
4. Texas A&M
So the seat is pretty warm for Dennis Franchione.
Franchione, à la Greg Robinson, has taken a program that seemed to level off and watched it decline a bit.
The Aggies might be another case of fans and boosters being a little too greedy and unrealistic with their expectations, as R.C. Slocum had this program in a good spot. Franchione's career record is 100-77, but he's only 2 games above .500 while at College Station and is 2 games under .500 in conference play. Not to mention, the last time this team won a bowl game was under Slocum back in 2001. Aggie fans are hoping last year's 9-4 record and victory over Texas are an indication that the program is getting back to where it was, and is capable of being, consistently in the 8-,9-, and 10-win range. If this year proves last year was an aberration, Franchione may not see 2008. The fact that Kyle Field didn't sell out last year, and in fact averaged about 7,000 fans short shows just how much faith Aggie Nation has in Franchione. Also of note is the fact while Kyle Field has a reputation for being one of the nation's toughest stadiums to play in, the Aggies are just 17-9 at home the last 4 years with 5 of those losses by double digits.
Offensively, one could look at the Aggies numbers and say they got worse from 2005, and the truth is, they did. However an improved defense prevented that from being a hindrance. The Aggies bring back 9 starters to a unit that still was pretty good last year, averaging over 200 yards a game on the ground and close to it through the air. Improvement is expected this fall as Stephen McGee returns at quarterback after having a breakthrough year last year. Look for the Aggies to open up the offense more as McGee proved more than capable last season throwing 12 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. The low touchdown and yardage totals have more to do with the Aggies playcalling than McGee's abilities as he also completed over 60 percent of his passes. Make no mistake about it, McGee's strength is his ability to tuck the ball and run, but he's no slouch of a passer either. Redshirt freshmen Jarrod Johnson, a receiver out of high school is big, strong, and also mobile and will likely garner some playing time, but this is McGee's team, no question about it.
What McGee really needs is for someone to step up at wide receiver. Tight end Martellus Bennett is a good one, but he's their leading returning receiver, 2 on the team last year. It's usually not a good sign when a tight end is your 2 receiver. Kerry Franks has blazing speed, but his route running and hands have prevented him from being a go-to guy at the position. Earvin Taylor possesses excellent size, but he has to average more than the 8.9 ypc he had in 2006. Again though, a lot of that has to do with the playcalling by the Aggies. Aggie fans are still waiting on Howard Morrow, a top 20 prospect out of high school, to show up. Just 4 starts, and only 13 catches in two years. With nobody else stepping forward at receiver, the opportunity is there for him to seize it and make use of the potential he has. Morrow has the most potential of all the Aggie pass catchers, and the team really needs him to make use of it it, and to do it now. One name to keep in mind is E.J. Shankle, a sophomore who possesses the most potential to be the big play threat at the position.
If the Aggies are going to take the next step they absolutely must find someone on the outside who can make plays consistently. Otherwise, teams will load up to stop the run. If they can find one, just one guy, who can become a consistent threat to keep defenses honest, this offense, with the offensive line and backfield as talented as it is, and with Bennett at tight end, will be one of the nation's best, and will be good enough for the Aggies to seriously entertain thoughts of playing in a top tier bowl. However, there just doesn't seem to be anyone who is going to step up.
The Aggies are good enough at running the ball that against most teams, even if they stack 8 in the box, the Aggies will still find success on the ground. However, against the Texases and Oklahomas of the world, that won't work. Jovorskie Lane is the sledgehammer in this offense, and the short yardage back, as his 19 touchdowns would attest to. The Aggies will use a split backfield and line up Lane at fullback at times to get him and Mike Goodson on the field together. Goodson is the speed guy and he averaged nearly 7 yards per tote last year while rushing for 847. You can also expect him to be more heavily involved in the passing game, perhaps spending more time lined up wide or in the slot to get himself and Lane on the field together, and to try and find somebody to catch the ball from McGee. The wild card here is freshman Bradley Stephens who is talented enough to see significant playing time, just the question is exactly where do you find that playing time when you already have two All Conference running backs ahead of him?
Last year the offensive line allowed multiple sacks just 5 times, and one of those games was Louisiana Lafayette where a lot of second and third teamers saw playing time. The line also paved the way for a 2,689 yard rushing season with a 5.0 average and 32 rushing touchdowns. No wonder Aggie fans are excited about this ground game as 4 starters return, and the one player who didn't start last year, left guard Chris Yoder, did start 1 games as a redshirt freshmen in 2004 at center. The Aggie line is good enough, and number two tight end Joey Thomas an excellent blocker, that even if teams to attempt to stack the box, the Aggies are still going to have success on the ground, this is a running game you won't be able to completely stop. Last year their lowest output of the season was 146 yards and only once were they limited to under 4.0 ypc. The question is if it's good enough to carry this team to a championship.
On the other side, former Western Michigan coach Gary Darnell did wonders with this defense in his first year as defensive coordinator. A unit that allowed 31.2 ppg and over 300 yards a game through the air decreased those totals to 20.5 and just 191 in just one season. That incredible turnaround was the primary reason the Aggies went from 5-6 to 9-3. The Aggies started 5-2 in 2005 before allowing 42, 56, 36, and 40 points over their final four games, dropping all four. Last year the most Texas A&M allowed was 33, and that was in overtime against Oklahoma State. This year they must replace 5 starters, but only lose 8 lettermen, so plenty of experience is still back for A&M, and you can expect the pass defense to continue to improve as both corners are back. Jordan Peterson and Danny Gorrer started as freshmen and sophomores, respectively, last year and performed quite well. Peterson in particular showed excellent ball skills coming up with two picks and defending 8 other passes, although his inexperience was exploited as he was the goat in allowing two game winning touchdowns and was often the corner teams picked on on 3rd downs. The more playing time he gets though, the better he's going to be. Gorrer isn't quite as good in coverage, but is excellent in run support and he had 52 tackles. The two complement each other well and Arkeith Brown , Marquis Carpenter and Johnathon Baston provide quality veteran depth, with Brown ready to step in and start if Peterson continues to give up key plays in critical situations.
The Aggies use 3 safeties in their 4-2-5 defense, though both the WHIP and SS will feature new starters. Devin Gregg is back at free safety. Gregg, pound for pound is one of the strongest players on the team and in two years has established himself as a quality safety. He had 64 stops a year ago after recording 31 as a freshmen in spot duty. The two strong safety positions will be occupied by new starters, but not necessarily inexperienced ones. Senior Stephen Hodge has the most size of the candidates, but hasn't seen the field much in his career, which at this point, should tell you something. His role is best as a reserve safety and reserve outside linebacker. Alton Dixon, a junior will likely take one of the spots. Dixon has seen the field a bit over his first two years, but keep an eye on Will Harris, a good sized JUCO transfer who will push for time. Also of note is Brock Newton who started 8 games in 2005, and 7 last year before but was dismissed from the team at the end of the season with the possibility of a return. Newton, of all the strong safeties, possesses perhaps the best coverage skills, so getting him back would be a huge plus. Japhus Brown, like Stephen Hodge, is a veteran who may be squeezed out by a younger player. Brown's career began with a ton of promise, starting 10 games as a freshman and making 62 tackles, but he's only had 6 starts the past two seasons. His versatility is a nice bonus. All told, the secondary which had such an astonishing turnaround last year should be even better this season.
Unfortunately for Texas A&M, while the secondary improved, the run defense saw a rather significant falloff. They went from allowing 3.6 ypc to 4.3 and three times surrendered 200 plus on the ground. Their performance against Texas was inspiring, but that was also during the stretch where the Longhorns running game was MIA. Surprisingly enough, after allowing 303 yards a game via the pass last season, the run defense became the weaker spot of the defense as teams actually ran the ball more than they threw it against Texas A&M, and the Aggies played with a lot of leads.
The two linebacker spots are still open for competition. Senior Misi Tupe started 8 games last year, and Mark Dodge started 5. Both are former JUCOs and neither exceptionally gifted athletically, but both serviceable players. Dodge was an honorable mention All Big 12 player a year ago with his 51 tackles despite starting just the 5 games. They will likely fight over one spot while Anthony Lewis and Matt Featherston will duke it out for the other. Lewis is the more athletically gifted of the two, but the sophomore missed most of last year with an injury so he didn't gain the experience the coaches had hoped for. The coaches would like him to win the job, but he'll have to show in fall camp that he was paying attention while on the sidelines last year. Featherston started 1 game last year as well, and had 26 tackles, but he lacks the game changing playmaking skills that Lewis can bring to the table. Two very interesting prospects here are Stephen Hodge who could get moved back to linebacker from safety and true freshmen Derrick Stephens. Stephens, a blue chip recruit is the most talented Aggie linebacker on the roster, but he's also a true freshmen. Don't be surprised if by the end of the season it's not Stephens and Lewis starting at linebacker.
In front of these guys is a defensive line that can boast a couple of legit stars. One of those stars is defensive end Chris Harrington. The Aggies only registered a rather pitiful 20 sacks last year and Harrington had 7.5 of them. The could desperately use someone else to step up to the plate to pressure the quarterback to take some of the pressure off, and some of the attention away, from Harrington. Sophomore Kellen Heard might be the guy to do that. Heard didn't start last year, but saw a little bit of playing time and the former offensive lineman had 2.5 sacks. Heard, at 6'6, 330 lbs is a large body that will go alongside another large body, 6'5, 324 lb Red Bryant. Bryant missed 5 games due to injury last year, so having him healthy for the full season would be extremely helpful for the Aggies in stopping opponents rushing attacks. The end opposite Harrington will likely be Cyril Obiozor, though Michael Bennett will push him extremely hard. Bennett is a little bigger and has been productive when he's been on the field. Obiozor might be a slight bit more athletic, but if that doesn't equal production from the get-go, Bennett will likely take over. Paul Freeny and true freshman Von Miller offer intriguing alternatives at the end position, though Miller is a bit undersized and could use a redshirt year to add some weight. Weight isn't a problem in the middle, not even with the top reserves as they too tip the scales at 300 plus. Vincent Williams is a guy who might steal some snaps from the top two, though he saw little playing time as a freshman. With the size of the tackles, there is no reason the Aggie run defense can't improve. Harrington can get after the quarterback, and between Obiozor, Bennett and Freeny, one would think one of these guys will step up and prove they can as well. If they do, this line could be an improvement over last year's front four which wasn't bad to begin with.
For the first time in the Franchione era, the special teams were more than adequate last year. Another sticking point for Franchione critics was the surprising decline of these units, a trademark of R.C. Slocum's teams. The competition for playing time at linebacker and at safety should lead to even more improvement in the kick coverage units and should make those units among the nation's best. Franks is an elite kickoff returner, averaging close to 28 ypr a year ago. The Aggies will be breaking in a new punt returner and Johnathon Baston is the early favorite, though replacing just 7.4 ypr doesn't leave him big shoes to fill. Punter Justin Brantley was outstanding a year ago, averaging over 44 ypp, though he only forced 4 catches, leaving a lot of his punts returnable, putting more onus on the cover teams. Matt Szymanski saw very limited duty last year as a kicker and will take over the job this year . He has a very strong leg, but was just 2-5 last season with a long of 35.
A&M was 2-12 against ranked foes from 2002 thru 2005, including 7 losses by 20 points or more. Last year the Aggies went 2-1 against top 25 opponents, the one loss a one point loss to Oklahoma that ultimately cost the Aggies the Big 12 South. A&M plays a pretty balanced non conference schedule. The first three games are manageable, though Fresno State has proven to be a very pesky non conference foe, and then there is a Thursday night trip to the Orange Bowl to play Miami. The Aggies should start no worse than 3-1. Franchione is just 1-5 against BCS teams in non-conference play, and going on the road, one can't help but think the Aggies first loss will come on that Thursday night. However, the even bigger game for Texas A&M comes a couple of weeks later when they face off with Oklahoma State at home. Regardless of what happens with Miami, this is the key game on their schedule. If they win this one it puts them in a position to battle it out for the Big 12 South, but more importantly will give them their 5th and possibly 6th win of the year.
Why is this so important?
Because the second half of their schedule is a killer.
They have to play at Texas Tech, at Nebraska, at Oklahoma and at Missouri before closing with Texas at home. That's why the Oklahoma State game is so big. If the Aggies are 4-2 when they travel to Lubbock the cry for Franchione's job will be even louder, and that's a distraction that could either cause this team to completely bog down down the stretch and perhaps miss the postseason entirely, or cause a Clemson type revival that they have every year. In any event, if the defense continues to improve, but the offense, thanks to no passing game, keeps the Aggies from winning 9 or 10 games, expect fans to be calling for Darnell to be the new head coach. Ultimately the pressure on Franchione and the killer second half schedule will be too much for Texas A&M to sustain their success from a year ago. They need someone to step up at linebacker and receiver, if that happens, the Aggies will have a shot to overcome that schedule and still win 8 or 9 games, and if they can win 8 or 9 games with their schedule, Franchione should get an extension.
5. Texas Tech
Mike Leach's program is a model of consistency.
Over the past seven years, the Red Raiders have won 56 games, right at eight per season. In the past five years they've won four bowl games, which nearly doubles what they had won in their entire history before that.
Hopefully Red Raider fans don't get too greedy and start expecting more...even if it would be nice if the program could notch its first 10-win season since 1976. To do so, Tech must find a way to have more success against ranked foes. Leach has lost 13 of 15 against the top ten, and only won six games against the top 25. One of these years you'd think the Red Raiders will knock down the door and and actually be a serious player on the national stage, but this year likely won't be it.
Offensively the Red Raiders score and score a lot, though the 2006 season was a down year by their standards. Their offense scored "just" 32.5 ppg, their lowest mark this decade. Starting a sophomore at quarterback as opposed to their usual first year starting, 5th year senior, might have had something to do with it. So might the fact they averaged just 79 yards a game on the ground, despite a 4.7 ypc. Expect a greater emphasis on the ground game this year as the pass:run ratio was a far too unbalanced 50:17. Graham Harrell is perhaps the highest rated quarterback Texas Tech has ever signed and as a sophomore Harrell threw for 4,555 yards and 38 touchdowns last year. He had his moments of disarray, which was to be expected from a youngster in this complex system, so one can expect some more improvement. Additionally, he was benched on two separate occasions a year ago, moves that Leach admits probably didn't help his quarterback any. This year there is no question the team is his. Another highly touted quarterback coming out of high school, Taylor Potts, will be the top backup and Potts seems more than capable of coming in and doing the job should something happen to Harrell.
The running game doesn't necessarily need to improve, they just need to use it more often, though that may come down to Shannon Woods getting his way out of Leach's doghouse. This isn't the first time Woods has worked his way into Leach's doghouse, though after last spring he worked out of it and ran for 926 yards and ten scores, averaging over 6 ypc and also catching 75 passes. Coming out of spring Leach relegated him to 3rd on the depth chart, but if Leach expects this team to keep its' streak of 14 straight non losing seasons going, he knows he'll need Woods production. If for some reason Woods remains in a backup role, redshirt freshman Kobey Lewis and sophomore Baron Batch will become the featured backs. Batch missed half of last season with an injury, although the coaches are confident he can become a solid contributor.
While they were paving the way for the ground game to get 4.7 ypc, the Red Raiders offensive line was even better in pass protection, permitting just 19 sacks. When you throw the ball 656 times, allowing just 19 sacks is a pretty incredible feat. Unfortunately only one starter is back on the offensive line. That one starter is a pretty good one in Louis Vasquez and he'll be line's anchor at left tackle after playing guard last year. The rest of the line is the question, and it's a BIG question.
Senior Ofa Mohetau was the one guy the staff was depending on to come in and be a reliable option at guard. Mohetau was considered by some the top offensive line prospect coming out of high school when he signed with BYU. He's spent two years at JUCO, and started twice last year for the Red Raiders. A massive 360 lbs, his presence at guard was going to make it a much easier choice to put Vazquez at tackle. However, Mohetau quit the team, so Vazquez still might return to guard. Rylan Reed originally signed with Arkansas but went and played baseball. He's back playing football and while he didn't start last year, he did play in 11 games and he will be one tackle. Sophomores will play at right guard and center, and guard Brandon Carter gives the Red Raiders a 350 lb guard. Four interesting prospects are redshirt freshman Chris Olson and true freshmen Mickey Okafor, Jerrod Gooch and Lonnie Edwards. All were highly thought of coming out of high school and will push for playing time as Edwards and Okafor offer more size than Reed at tackle. Gooch is the most likely of the freshmen to start right off the bat, likely being the one to take over the left guard spot.
Sorting out the offensive line will be vital to the success of the Red Raiders offense this season as this offense is built all on timing. While a repeat of last year's outstanding performance in pass protection is highly unlikely, there was hope this unit wouldn't be a weakness. Unfortunately, Mohetau's loss just leaves more questions in this area.
At wide receiver the Red Raiders lose their top two pass catchers, but with this offense and this system, that's no big deal. When players put up astronomical numbers and then don't succeed in the NFL, it becomes apparent that the numbers are a product of the system, not so much the players. The Red Raiders don't need a bunch of blue chip prospects, just a nice combination of possession guys with good hands and speed guys to stretch the field. They should have that blend again. Danny Amendola will be the go to guy while Todd Walker who is blessed with sub 4.3 speed will be the teams biggest deep threat. Michael Crabtree, Edward Britton and Grant Walker all will see the field quite regularly. Crabtree was a star for the scout team last year and he's going to get a chance to shine on Saturday this season. L.A. Reed is the team's most physical receiver, so don't be surprised if he doesn't become Harrell's favorite target it in the red zone.
There is a misconception that Texas Tech is all offense and no defense. That does Lyle Sentenich's units injustice. Due to the high octane pace the Red Raider offense plays at, to expect any defense to be able to maintain a high level of play for four quarters and be dominant is too much, so considering the increased number of possessions per game due to their offense's style, what this defense does isn't all bad at all. In fact, the Red Raiders, for the past three seasons have kept opponents under 200 ypg passing. The defense was good enough last year for this team to have won double digit games, as in back to back losses to Missouri and Colorado in which they allowed a total of 68 points, Tech still only allowed 340 or so yards per game in those two, being -7 in turnovers in those two games is what killed the Red Raiders. Tech may lose six starters on defense, but due to playing large numbers of players, the Red Raiders return 29 lettermen on that side of the ball.
As mentioned the pass defense has been a strength in Lubbock the past three seasons after being a sore spot in Sentenich's first two years here. This season he brings back both safeties and one corner. His returning starter at cornerback, Chris Parker, is a senior who is a solid tackler and has solid ball skills. He's no shut down elite corner, but he's solid. Teaming beside him is likely to be JUCO De'Shon Sanders, though Marcus Bunton started twice last year and converted tailback Jamar Wall showed some promise a year ago. The safeties though are the strength of this defense, without a doubt. Joe Garcia and Darcel McBath are the two returning leading tacklers on this team. After just three starts his first two years, Garcia burst on the scene last year with 87 tackles, though Tech could afford him to make a few more plays in pass coverage. McBath is the one who, if not for the gluttony of safeties in the state of Oklahoma would be a lot better known had a banner sophomore year. He was great in run support with 75 stops, but he, unlike Garcia, also excelled in pass defense, nabbing three interceptions and defending five others. Daniel Charbonnet started two games at Duke as a true freshman and he provides the depth with Lance Fuller. Anthony Hines is an interesting proposition as at 236 lbs he's not your typical sized safety.
Fletcher Session and Brock Stratton are no longer suiting up to play linebacker for the Red Raiders, and that could pose a big problem. Kellen Tillman is the lone returning starter at linebacker. After tearing an ACL in 2003 and missing 2004 as well with it, he played sparingly in 2005 before getting ten starts last season. Tillman wasn't anything special but he was solid, and Tech is counting on him to be the leader of the linebacker corps this season. Without Stratton there to steal all the tackles, Tillman should improve on his 41 tackles of a year ago. If he doesn't, it's a bad sign for this defense. Paul Williams, another senior, is slated to move into the middle. Williams is another player who has benefited from Sentenich's aptness to play a lot of players on defense, as he started 6 games last year and has recorded 46 tackles the past two years. On the weak side sophomore Blake Collier will compete with senior Chad Hill for that spot. Collier is the more athletic and offers the chance to make more big plays, but he's also on the smallish side, can be exposed when being run at directly, and is less experienced. Chad Hill hasn't played much in his first three years however. If Williams can be the steadying influence on one side, Leach will probably turn this position over to Collier and use his athleticism to try and create more big plays for this defense. Not one player on this team last year had as many as four tackles behind the line of scrimmage a year ago, so they need playmakers to emerge. The starters should be okay at linebacker this year, but if injuries hit this unit, things could get very shaky, as this year there is no depth.
The run defense kept teams around the 150 ypg and 4.0 ypc mark for the second straight year. However, against some of the better running teams, Tech struggled mightily against the run, as TCU hit 180, Texas A&M 250, Colorado 228, Texas 227, Oklahoma State 221, and Minnesota 195. Those numbers are somewhat surprising considering the talent on the front four, though Dek Bake and Keyunta Dawson were known much more for their pass rushing talents than their run stopping prowess. Jake Ratliff returns at one defensive end position as the lone returning starter. Ratliff was an honorable mention Big 12 performer a year ago as he started all 13 games and recorded 4 sacks. At 6'8 he also used his height to get in passing lanes as he batted down four passes. Tech is still searching for the answer opposite Ratliff. Sam Fehoko is a talented freshman who played linebacker in high school who will likely play is way onto the field at some position. He may be pressed into service at linebacker, though the coaches see him as potentially an all star as a pass rusher at defensive end. Sophomore Brandon Williams though appears to have the inside track to start opposite Ratliff. Williams is a fairly good athlete and saw the field quite a bit as a true freshman a year ago, recording 3.5 sacks. Being a full time player the Raiders think he could approach the 6 or 7 mark, though concerns still exist over how he'll hold up against the run. Inside is even less stable for Tech. They are counting on a pair of sophomores in Rajon Henley and Richard Jones to step in and in the very least keep the run defense where it was a year ago, if not improve. Henley however isn't very big, so Brian Jones who is 40 lbs heavier will likely see a lot of playing time in running situations. Jones played in six last year before being injured. Richard Jones, the other starter saw action in ten games last season, but behind him is JUCO Brandon Sharpe who at 240 lbs is vastly undersized to play inside. The defensive line should be effective at getting after the passer, but it's lack of size and experience, especially in the middle are going to leave this defense very vulnerable against the run, and considering the number of quality rushing attacks this team will face this year, that could be very costly.
Further proof that Tech gets by with less than stellar recruits at receiver and running back, and lives off its system, is the ineffectiveness of the return game. Neither Woods nor Eric Morris were effective on kickoffs, and neither could even muster 18 ypr. Amendola was a little better on punts at 9.2, as his is the only job that's safe. Freshmen receiver Detron Lewis, who would ideally be redshirted, may be used as a return man. Also, Todd Walker and Michael Crabtree could see time there as well. They have to replace Alex Reyes at punter, and that's no small task. Reyes was one of the nation's best a year ago and freshman Jonathan LaCour is expected to take the job, though there's not a lot of confidence in him. Alex Trlica is back to kick field goals and he was 15-21 a year ago, but he has knocked through 166 straight extra points.
This Texas Tech team has more questions than perhaps any other in the Mike Leach era. Their ten returning starters are the fewest in both the conference, and in Leach's tenure. Serious questions abound on both lines and that will prevent this team from making any real noise in the South. The skill positions are set on offense, and the secondary is one of the league's best, however linebacker is an area of uncertainty that might determine the fate of this team. If the linebackers can play decent and keep the defense afloat, Tech should be able to make a bowl game. They get Iowa State and Colorado at home from the north, and Tech should dispose of Baylor, meaning they will need three non conference wins to achieve bowl eligibility. There is no guarantee they will get them as SMU, UTEP, and Rice could all pose legit challenges, though the Tech offense should be enough to get them past all three.
Another seven win season is still a definite possibility for the Red Raiders; the question being what bowl will they make it to. A lot will depend on Notre Dame. If the Irish are bowl eligible and not selected to the Gator Bowl, then it will be the International Bowl or Sun Bowl that gets Notre Dame. If it's the Sun Bowl, it's one less spot for the Big Twelve. If Tech gets to bowl eligibility and beats Colorado one would assume they'd get the bowl nod over Colorado, but the Buffs travel well and after a one year absence, a bowl might go with the bigger name Buffaloes, so Texas Tech may have a tough time finding a postseason home.
6. Baylor
You've got Duke in the East, Stanford in the West, and Baylor in the Midwest—three BCS programs that would be fortunate to make the playoffs in the FCS.
Guy Morris has been given 4 years already in Waco, which is a lot longer than most people have gotten, and a lot of that is due to his 5-6 year in 2005. Baylor has gone 9-14 the past two years, the best two year stretch in a long time for this program.
Coincidentally, it's the same record another dormant BCS program, Vanderbilt, has had in the same span. Baylor has also won five conference games the past two years, one more than Vanderbilt. Yet everyone is talking about the improvement of the Vanderbilt program, and how Baylor is still a joke.
Why?
The Bears might not be as funny as one would think.
Keep in mind in 2005 they lost in overtime to both Texas A&M and Oklahoma, otherwise this team would've finished 4th in the South and made a bowl. Last year they lost to Army in overtime and by two to Washington State, again just missing out on the postseason. Of course, when you look at some of the stats from this Baylor team, you start to think again they are THAT far away.
The Bears offense last year scored 23.6 ppg, which is actually nothing short of remarkable considering they only rushed for 40 ypg. Averaging barely over two yards an attempt the Bears running attack was one of the worst major college football has seen in recent memory, so how they scored the number of points they did is really amazing. Just four starters return to this offense, and unfortunately for Baylor they are not the school's number two all time passer, Shawn Bell, and his top two receivers from a year ago. So the only thing that made this offense look alive a year ago must be completely retooled. Michael Machen, a Kent State transfer was expected to be the favorite to start at quarterback, but he was completely unimpressive in practice and now may be relegated to 3rd string duty. Sophomore Blake Szymanski and JUCO John David Weed will leg it out right up until their trip to Forth Worth to play TCU to see who is the starting quarterback. Weed offers more as a passer while Szymanski has more mobility and did start three games a year ago, though his performance in those three games probably doesn't help his cause any. While the potential is there for this position to not be a weakness, expecting any of the candidates to play as well as Bell is expecting way too much.
A combined 107 receptions, 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns left via the likes of Dominique Ziegler and Trent Shelton. Now the Bears have to find adequate replacements. Thomas White is a sure thing to start, as in 5 starts last year he caught 26 passes. However, there are doubts as to if the junior can be the number one threat, though he does offer good size. The guy they will look to become the number one is David Gettis, who talent-wise is heads and shoulders above everyone else on the roster, in fact, talent-wise, he was the best Bear wideout last season. At 6'4, 206 and with 4.35 speed, Gettis has the tools to become a big time playmaker. If he makes use of his natural talents, the Bears passing game may not slip much after all because Gettis will command a lot of attention enabling the other able bodies to have a chance to make an impact. Gettis is the key to this unit, as the Bears will likely rotate as many as six other players at the two slot spots inside of White and Gettis. Tight end Justin Akers had a minimal impact as a freshman, so the Bears are hoping for a little more this year.
Time to throw was a precious commodity a year ago as the Bear offensive line allowed 36 sacks, including five games in which they allowed four or more. So is having three returning starters really a good thing? These are three players returning to a line that paved the way for a massive 40 yards per game and allowed 36 sacks. Then again, those three can't help but improve. Jayson Smith and Thad Boatner will be the tackles, though some concern exists as neither tops 290 lbs. Smith started 7 games as a redshirt freshman, but at tight end. He put on some weight last
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