San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistSeptember 24, 2013

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - SEPTEMBER 22:  Colin Kaepernick #7 of the San Francisco 49ers pitches to Kendall Hunter #32 against the Indianapolis Colts at Candlestick Park on September 22, 2013 in San Francisco, California.  (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

San Francisco continues to suffer from Super Bowl Loss Hangover Syndrome, and its offense has been inexplicably bad (10 points in two games). But they are the far superior team to the Rams, and the point spread is very tempting for 'Niner backers.

Point spread: The 49ers opened as three-point favorites; the total was sitting at 42 early Tuesday (Line updates and Matchup report). computer says: 12-9, Rams

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

San Francisco was favored to be the NFC rep in the Super Bowl just two weeks ago and, despite the Aldon Smith situation, did not turn into a terrible team in two weeks. When you play poorly two weeks in a row, the public turns on you and the point spread swings on you.

At minus-3, the 49ers are excellent betting value in Week 4.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Rams are improving and have been very tough as a home underdog (6-1-1 ATS past eight games according to the NFL database). They have also dominated the 49ers against the spread, failing to cover just once in seven meetings.

This will be a tough task for the Rams, facing a superior team that is angry and hungry.

Smart Pick

While the computer has heavily weighted the 49ers' offensive woes and predicted a low-scoring Rams win here, we don’t see that happening. As road chalk of six points or less, the 49ers are riding a 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS streak.


Rams 7-1 ATS past 8 division games

49ers 1-9 ATS past 10 division games

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